| 吴宇洁,何思怡,曹梦迪,等.1990—2021年中国、日本、韩国胃癌疾病负担变化及2022—2031年预测分析[J].中国肿瘤,2025,34(8):626-635. |
| 1990—2021年中国、日本、韩国胃癌疾病负担变化及2022—2031年预测分析 |
| Analysis of the Disease Burden of Gastric Cancer in China， Japan and Republic of Korea from 1990 to 2021 and Prediction of Trends from 2022 to 2031 |
| 投稿时间：2025-01-10 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2025.08.A004 |
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| 中文关键词: 胃癌 发病率 死亡率 疾病负担 中国 日本 韩国 预测 |
| 英文关键词:gastric cancer incidence mortality disease burden China Japan Republic of Korea prediction |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金（82273721，81773521） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］ 对比分析1990—2021年中国、日本、韩国胃癌流行情况、疾病负担及2022—2031年变化趋势预测。［方法］ 从全球疾病负担（Global Burden of Disease，GBD）数据库提取1990—2021年中国、日本和韩国胃癌的标化发病率、标化死亡率、粗发病率、粗死亡率以及伤残调整寿命年（disability-adjusted life years，DALY）率等数据，采用Joinpoint软件进行回归分析，计算疾病负担的趋势变化；应用自回归移动平均模型（autoregressive integrated moving average model，ARIMA）对2022—2031年发病、死亡情况进行预测。［结果］ 2021年中国胃癌发病和死亡例数分别为611 799例和445 013例，标化发病率和死亡率分别为29.05/10万和21.51/10万，均高于日本和韩国。中国男性胃癌标化发病率（44.48/10万）与标化死亡率（32.61/10万）均为3个国家中最高，远超日本（标化发病率为38.77/10万，标化死亡率为20.26/10万）和韩国（标化发病率为38.98/10万，标化死亡率为20.50/10万）。女性群体中，中国新发病例数居3个国家之首，但标化发病率（15.23/10万）略低于韩国（15.57/10万），高于日本（14.66/10万），而标化死亡率（12.02/10万）仍显著高于日本（7.64/10万）、韩国（8.08/10万）。1990—2021年中国、日本、韩国胃癌的标化发病率、标化死亡率及DALY率均在下降，但中国降幅显著滞后于日韩，韩国在所有指标上均呈现最快下降速度。ARIMA模型预测显示，2022—2031年3个国家胃癌疾病负担呈现显著差异，中国和韩国胃癌标化发病率持续下降，至2031年预计分别降至22.87/10万和12.45/10万，而日本则上升至26.55/10万；标化死亡率同步下降，2031年预计分别为13.71/10万（中国）、10.44/10万（日本）和9.08/10万（韩国）。［结论］ 在中国、日本、韩国3个国家中，中国胃癌标化发病率和标化死亡率最高，且1990—2021标化发病率、死亡率及DALY率下降幅度最小，提示我国胃癌的疾病负担仍然相当严峻，应进一步关注胃癌筛查和早诊早治问题。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract： ［Purpose］ To analyze the epidemiology and disease burden of gastric cancer in China， Japan and Republic of Korea from 1990 to 2021 and to predict changing trends from 2022 to 2031. ［Methods］ Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. Age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR)， age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR)， crude incidence rate (CIR)， crude mortality rate (CMR)， and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rate for China， Japan and Republic of Korea from 1990 to 2021 were analyzed. Joinpoint regression software was used to analyze trends and calculate annual percentage changes. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was applied to predict incidence and mortality from 2022 to 2031. ［Results］ In 2021， China had 611 799 new gastric cancer cases and 445 013 deaths， with an ASIR of 29.05/105 and an ASMR of 21.51/105， both significantly higher than those in Japan and Republic of Korea. Among men in China， both the ASIR (44.48/105) and ASMR (32.61/105) were the highest among the three countries， exceeding those in Japan (38.77/105， 20.26/105) and Republic of Korea (38.98/105， 20.50/105). Among women， China had the highest number of new cases， but its ASIR (15.23/105) was slightly lower than Republic of Korea’s (15.57/105) and higher than Japan’s (14.66/105). However， China’s ASMR among women (12.02/105) remained significantly higher than Japan’s (7.64/105) and Republic of Korea’s (8.08/105). From 1990 to 2021， ASIR， ASMR and DALY rates for gastric cancer declined in all three countries， but the reduction in China was significantly smaller than that in Japan and Republic of Korea， with Republic of Korea showing the steepest declines across all indicators. ARIMA model predictions indicated significant differences in disease burden among the three countries from 2022 to 2031. ASIR is projected to continue declining in China and Republic of Korea， reaching 22.87/105 and 12.45/105， respectively by 2031， while in Japan it is predicted to rise to 26.55/105. ASMR is projected to decline in all three countries， reaching 13.71/105 (China)， 10.44 /105(Japan)， and 9.08/105(Republic of Korea) in 2031.［Conclusion］ Among China， Japan and Republic of Korea， China had the highest ASIR and ASMR of gastric cancer in 2021. Moreover， from 1990 to 2021， the reductions in ASIR， ASMR and DALY rates for gastric cancer were the smallest in China compared to Japan and Republic of Korea. These findings suggest that the disease burden of gastric cancer remains substantial in China， highlighting the need for increased efforts in gastric cancer screening and early diagnosis and treatment. |
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