| 赵 培,解 晔,李秋梅,等.2009—2019年江苏省肿瘤登记地区骨恶性肿瘤发病趋势及年龄变化分析[J].中国肿瘤,2025,34(8):618-625. |
| 2009—2019年江苏省肿瘤登记地区骨恶性肿瘤发病趋势及年龄变化分析 |
| Trends of Incidence and Age at Onset of Bone Malignant Tumors in Jiangsu Cancer Registration Areas from 2009 to 2019 |
| 投稿时间：2024-08-15 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2025.08.A003 |
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| 中文关键词: 骨恶性肿瘤 趋势分析 横断面研究 发病年龄 江苏 |
| 英文关键词:bone malignant tumors trend analysis cross-sectional study age at onset Jiangsu |
| 基金项目:江苏省卫健委预防医学研究课题（Ym2023027） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］ 分析2009—2019年江苏省肿瘤登记地区骨恶性肿瘤发病趋势及年龄变化特征。［方法］ 基于2009—2019年江苏省连续且质控合格的16个登记处的全部骨恶性肿瘤资料，计算骨恶性肿瘤发病率、平均发病年龄及发病构成等指标。构建出生队列模型，分析1929—2019年出生人群骨恶性肿瘤发病率变化情况。利用Joinpoint回归模型分析各年度骨恶性肿瘤发病率和60岁及以上人群骨恶性肿瘤发病构成的平均年度变化百分比（average annual percentage change，AAPC）。采用一般线性回归模型分析平均发病年龄变化趋势。［结果］ 2009—2019年江苏省肿瘤登记地区女性骨恶性肿瘤粗发病率呈下降趋势，AAPC为-2.62%（P=0.025），其他分类人群粗发病率无明显变化。调整人口构成后，除城市地区外，全省合计、男性、女性和农村地区骨恶性肿瘤中标发病率均呈明显下降趋势，AAPC分别为-3.15%、-2.49%、-4.31%和-2.23%（P均＜0.05）。全省合计、男性和城市地区的骨恶性肿瘤中标平均发病年龄呈下降趋势，年均下降0.365、0.504和0.469岁（P均＜0.05）。同期全省合计、男性、女性、城市地区50~59、60~69和70~79岁年龄组骨恶性肿瘤发病率均呈现下降趋势，AAPC在-9.06%~-4.14%之间（P均<0.05），发病率随出生年份后移逐渐降低。＜30岁年龄组男性骨恶性肿瘤发病率逐年上升，AAPC为4.30%（P＜0.05）。相比较于2009年，2019年全省男性和城市地区15~39岁年龄段骨恶性肿瘤发病构成增加，60~79岁年龄段发病构成普遍降低。经年龄结构调整后，2009—2019年城市地区60岁及以上人群的骨恶性肿瘤发病构成下降，AAPC为-1.42%（P＜0.05）。［结论］ 江苏省骨恶性肿瘤呈现发病水平逐年下降、发病年龄构成前移的流行特征，应加强对这些变化趋势的研究，针对性调整骨恶性肿瘤的防控措施。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract：［Purpose］ To analyze the trends of incidence and age at onset of bone malignant tumors in cancer registration areas of Jiangsu Province from 2009 to 2019. ［Methods］ Incidence data of bone malignant tumors from 2009 to 2019 were collected from 16 consecutive and quality-controlled cancer registries in Jiangsu Province. The incidence rates， average age at onset， and incidence composition of bone malignant tumors were calculated. A birth cohort model was constructed to analyze the changes in the incidence of bone malignant tumors in the population born from 1929 to 2019. Joinpoint regression models were used to analyze the average annual percentage change (AAPC) in the incidence rates and the incidence composition of bone malignant tumors for each year in those aged 60 years old and above. A general linear regression model was used to analyze the trend of the average age of onset. ［Results］ The crude incidence rate of bone malignant tumors in women in Jiangsu cancer registration areas decreased from 2009 to 2019， with an AAPC of -2.62% (P=0.025). After adjusting the population composition， except for urban areas， the incidence of bone malignant tumors in the whole province， men， women and rural areas all decreased significantly， with AAPC of -3.15%， -2.49%， -4.31% and -2.23%， respectively. The average age at onset of bone malignant tumors in the whole province， men and urban areas decreased significantly yearly， with an average annual decrease of 0.365， 0.504 and 0.469 years old， respectively. In the same period， the incidence of malignant bone tumors in the whole province， men， women and urban areas of age groups of 50~59， 60~69 and 70~79 years old showed a decreasing trend， the AAPC ranged from -9.06% to -4.14% (all P<0.05)， and the incidence decreased gradually with the year of birth. The incidence of malignant bone tumors in men < 30 years old increased yearly with an AAPC of 4.30% (P<0.05). Compared with 2009， the composition of incidence in men aged 15~39 years old and in urban population increased in 2019， while the incidence of bone malignant tumors in the age group of 60~79 years old in the province generally decreased. After age structure adjustment， the incidence of bone malignant tumors in people over 60 years old in urban areas decreased with an AAPC of -1.42% (P<0.05). ［Conclusion］ The incidence of bone malignant tumors in Jiangsu Province is decreasing and the age at onset is moving forward， indicating that the prevention and control measures of bone malignant tumors should be adjusted accordingly. |
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