| 刘 哲,杨 琳,胡雪华,等.2011—2020年中国前列腺癌死亡趋势分析及2021—2030年变化趋势预测[J].中国肿瘤,2025,34(3):171-177. |
| 2011—2020年中国前列腺癌死亡趋势分析及2021—2030年变化趋势预测 |
| Trend of Prostate Cancer Mortality in China from 2011 to 2020 and Prediction from 2021 to 2030 |
| 投稿时间：2024-09-19 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2025.03.A002 |
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| 中文关键词: 前列腺癌 死亡 预测 贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型 中国 |
| 英文关键词:prostate cancer mortality prediction Bayesian age-period-cohort China |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划（2018YFC1315301） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］ 分析2011—2020年中国前列腺癌死亡状况的变化趋势，并预测2021—2030年前列腺癌死亡趋势。［方法］ 利用2011—2020年全国死因监测系统数据，通过死亡人数、年龄标化死亡率、早死寿命损失年（years of life lost，YLL）和年龄标化YLL率描述2011—2020年中国前列腺癌死亡状况和疾病负担，使用Joinpoint回归模型计算平均年度变化百分比（average annual percentage change，AAPC），描述变化趋势。使用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型预测2021—2030年前列腺癌死亡率，估计未来前列腺癌死亡人数，并对未来死亡状况的变化进行因素分解分析。［结果］ 2020年中国前列腺癌死亡人数为30 805例，年龄标化死亡率为5.56/10万，其中城市地区前列腺癌年龄标化死亡率为6.56/10万，农村地区前列腺癌年龄标化死亡率为4.84/10万。2011—2020年，中国前列腺癌的死亡人数、年龄标化死亡率、年龄标化YLL率均呈现上升趋势，AAPC分别为5.4%（95%CI：4.7%~6.1%）、1.5%（95%：1.4%~1.6%）和1.1%（95%：1.1%~1.2%）；东部地区前列腺癌年龄标化死亡率大于中部和西部地区；无论城市还是农村地区，在60岁及以上年龄组中，前列腺癌死亡人数均呈上升趋势。预测到2030年，前列腺癌年龄标化死亡率上升到5.74/10万。人口老龄化、年龄别死亡率变化和人口自然增长分别占总前列腺癌死亡数变化因素的24.75%、2.77%和7.45%。［结论］ 我国前列腺癌疾病负担不断增加。应对高危地区和高危人群实施针对性的措施，有效降低前列腺癌死亡造成的疾病负担。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract：［Purpose］ To analyze the trend of prostate cancer mortality in China from 2011 to 2020， and to predict the prostate cancer mortality trend from 2021 to 2030. ［Methods］ The data were collected from the National Mortality Surveillance System(NMSS) from 2011 to 2020， the burden of prostate cancer in China from 2011 to 2020 were analyzed by the number of deaths， age-standardized mortality rate(ASMR)， years of life lost(YLL) and age-standardized YLL rate. Joinpoint regression model was used to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) to describe the trend of change. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the mortality rate of prostate cancer from 2021 to 2030 and estimate the number of deaths of prostate cancer in the future. Decomposition analysis was carried out to explore the potential drivers of changes of mortality. ［Results］ The number of prostate cancer deaths in China in 2020 was 30 805 with an ASMR of 5.56/105. The ASMR for prostate cancer in urban and rural areas was 6.56/105 and 4.84/105， respectively. From 2011 to 2020， the number of prostate cancer deaths， ASMR and age-standardized YLL rate of prostate cancer in China showed an upward trend， AAPC was 5.4% (95%CI： 4.7%~6.1%)， 1.5% (95%CI： 1.4%~1.6%) and 1.1% (95%CI： 1.1%~1.2%)， respectively. The ASMR of prostate cancer was higher in the eastern region than those in the central and western regions. Prostate cancer deaths increased in both urban and rural areas among people aged 60 years old and above. In 2030， it is predicted the ASMR of prostate cancer would increase to 5.74/105. Population aging， changes in age-specific mortality rates， and natural population growth accounted for 24.75%， 2.77%， and 7.45% of the changes in total deaths of prostate cancer， respectively. ［Conclusion］ The burden of prostate cancer is increasing in China. Targeted measures should be implemented in high-risk areas and high-risk groups to effectively reduce the disease burden caused by prostate cancer. |
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