| 陈建国,朱 健,张永辉,等.1977—2021年江苏省启东市宫颈癌发病趋势分析[J].中国肿瘤,2025,34(2):108-115. |
| 1977—2021年江苏省启东市宫颈癌发病趋势分析 |
| Trends of Cervical Cancer Incidence in Qidong City of Jiangsu Province from 1977 to 2021 |
| 投稿时间：2024-02-19 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2025.02.A004 |
|
 |
| 中文关键词: 宫颈癌 发病率 趋势 流行病学 江苏 |
| 英文关键词:cervical cancer incidence trend epidemiology Jiangsu |
| 基金项目:南通市卫生健康委员会科研课题（MS2023121） |
|
| 摘要点击次数: 221 |
| 全文下载次数: 71 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］ 分析1977—2021年江苏省启东市宫颈癌发病率的长期趋势。［方法］ 基于启东市1977—2021年宫颈癌登记病例数据库，计算粗发病率、中国人口标化率（简称中标率）、世界人口标化率（简称世标率）、35~64岁截缩率、0~74岁累积发病率、累积发病风险等，并进行出生队列发病率分析。用Joinpoint 4.9.0.0软件进行Joinpoint 回归分析，计算宫颈癌发病率年度变化百分比（annual percentage change，APC）和平均年度变化百分比（average annual percentage change，AAPC）。［结果］ 启东市1977—2021年共计发生宫颈癌2 253例，占全人群恶性肿瘤发病例数的1.62%，占女性恶性肿瘤发病病例数的4.03%，粗发病率为8.75/10万，中标率为4.54/10万，世标率为6.01/10万，35~64岁截缩率为15.09/10万，0~74岁累积发病率为0.63%，累积发病风险为0.63%。1977—2021年宫颈癌各年龄组发病率随年龄增长而不断升高。平均发病年龄为55.36岁，其中最低的2010年为47.51岁。时间趋势结果显示，宫颈癌粗发病率总AAPC为6.010% (95%CI： 4.951%~7.081%) (P<0.001)，其中1977—1999年间呈下降趋势，APC为-2.507%，1999—2017年间呈上升趋势，APC为14.436%（P<0.001）；中标率和世标率的升降趋势与粗发病率相似。年龄组及时期分析显示，早期的高发病率年龄组在老年组，而最近15年来的高发年龄组出现在45~54岁组；25~64岁之间各年龄组的AAPC均呈上升趋势（P均<0.05）。出生队列结果显示，1937—1941年出生队列者的宫颈癌发病率最低，各年龄组的出生队列发病率呈现“V型”趋势。［结论］ 启东市宫颈癌发病率呈现先缓慢下降，后快速上升的变化，且发病年龄有年轻化的趋势。分析还提示宫颈癌的HPV感染病因已经并且将继续对区域性的流行趋势产生影响，降低HPV病毒感染及加强疫苗接种等防控措施值得进一步加强。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract：［Purpose］ To analyze the trends of cervical cancer incidence in Qidong City of Jiangsu Province from 1977 to 2021. ［Methods］ Based on the cervical cancer registration database in Qidong City from 1977 to 2021， the crude incidence rate， the age-standardized rate by the standard Chinese standard population and the world standard population (ASRC and ASRW)， the truncated rate of 35~64 years old， the cumulative rate of 0~74 years old， and the cumulative risk were calculated； the incidence rates of birth cohorts were analyzed. Joinpoint regression analysis was performed with Joinpoint 4.9.0.0 software to calculate the annual percentage change (APC) and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of cervical cancer incidence. ［Results］ A total of 2 253 new cases of cervical cancer registered in Qidong City from 1977 to 2021， accounting for 1.62% of the total case numbers of cancer in the whole population， and for 4.03% of the total number of cancers in women. The crude incidence rate was 8.75/105， the ASRC was 4.54/105， the ASRW was 6.01/105， the truncated rate (35~64 years old) was 15.09/105， the cumulative rate (0~74 years old) was 0.63%， and the cumulative risk was 0.63%. The incidence of cervical cancer increased with age from 1977 to 2021. The average incident age was 55.36 years old， with the lowest age of 47.51 years old in 2010. Secular trend analysis showed that the AAPC of the crude incidence of cervical cancer was 6.010% (95%CI： 4.951%~7.081%) (P<0.001)， among which the trend decreased from 1977 to 1999， with an APC of -2.507%； and then the trend increased from 1999 to 2017， with an APC of 14.436% (P<0.001). The rising and falling trend curves of the ASRC and ASRW were similar to that of the crude incidence. The age group and time period analysis showed that the peak incidence was in the older age groups before 2006， while the peak incidence appeared in the age groups of 45~54 years old from 2007 to 2021. The AAPCs in age groups of 25~64 years old demonstrated upward trends (all P<0.05). The birth cohort analysis showed that the cervical cancer incidence in the 1937—1941 birth cohort was the lowest， and the birth cohort-specific rates in all age groups showed “V-shape” trends. ［Conclusion］ Long-term monitoring of cervical cancer incidence in Qidong has shown a trend of initially slow decline followed by a rapid increase， with the peak incident shifting towards younger ages. The rising trends of cervical cancer incidence in last two decades may be associated with the increased HPV infection， suggesting that measures to reduce HPV infection and enhance vaccination should be strengthened. |
|
在线阅读
查看全文 查看/发表评论 下载PDF阅读器 |