| 郭 祯,王 伟,王 红,等.2022年全球肺癌终生罹患风险和死亡风险分析[J].中国肿瘤,2025,34(2):81-88. |
| 2022年全球肺癌终生罹患风险和死亡风险分析 |
| Analysis of Global and Regional Lifetime Risk of Develo-ping and Dying from Lung Cancer in 2022 |
| 投稿时间：2024-07-09 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2025.02.A001 |
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| 中文关键词: 肺癌 终生患病风险 终生死亡风险 全球 |
| 英文关键词:lung cancer lifetime risk of disease lifetime risk of death the whole world |
| 基金项目:河南省科技攻关项目（232102310166）；河南省医学科技攻关项目（LHGJ20230118） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］ 从全球水平分析肺癌终生罹患风险和死亡风险。［方法］ 利用GLOBOCAN 2022 肺癌发病、死亡数据和联合国发布的人口和全死因数据，采用调整多原发癌的方法估计全球和不同地区肺癌终生罹患风险和死亡风险。［结果］ 全球肺癌终生罹患风险为3.59%［95%置信区间（confidence interval，CI）：3.58%~3.59%］，居不同癌种的第3位。终生罹患风险值存在明显的性别差异和地区差异，男性风险值为4.43%（95%CI：4.42%~4.44%），高于女性［2.71%（95%CI：2.70%~2.72%）］，男女性别比为1.63∶1；全球不同人类发展指数（human deve-lopment index，HDI）地区中，风险值随着HDI水平的升高而增加，超高HDI地区风险值为5.36%（95%CI：5.34%~5.37%），低HDI地区风险值为0.34%（95%CI：0.33%~0.34%）；全球20个地区中，东亚地区终生罹患风险最高，为7.53%（95%CI：7.52%~7.55%）；西非地区风险值最低，为0.16%（95%CI：0.16%~0.17%）。全球肺癌终生死亡风险为2.78%（95%CI：2.78%~2.78%），居不同癌种的第1位。终生死亡风险也存在明显的性别差异和地区差异，男性风险值［3.64%（95%CI：3.63%~3.64%）］高于女性［1.89%（95%CI：1.89%~1.90%）］，男女性别比为1.93∶1；全球不同HDI水平地区中，风险值随着HDI水平的升高而增加，超高HDI地区风险值为3.98%（95%CI：3.97%~3.99%），低HDI地区风险值为0.31%（95%CI：0.31%~0.31%）；全球20个地区中，死亡风险最高的为密克罗尼西亚联邦/波利尼西亚［5.80%（95%CI：4.98%~6.62%）］，死亡风险最低的为西非［0.15%（95%CI：0.15%~0.16%）］。中国肺癌终生罹患风险和死亡风险分别为7.54%（95%CI：7.52%~7.56%）和5.88%（95%CI：5.87%~5.90%），均居所有癌种的第1位。［结论］ 全球和不同地区肺癌终生罹患风险和死亡风险仍然较高，风险值随着HDI水平的增加而升高，中国肺癌终生罹患风险和死亡风险均高于全球水平，提示基于肺癌相关危险因素和筛查与早诊早治的综合防控措施仍需不断加强，从而降低肺癌疾病负担。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract：［Purpose］ To analyze the lifetime risk of developing and dying from lung cancer at global and regional levels. ［Methods］ Data of lung cancer incidence and mortality were obtained from GLOBOCAN 2022 and the population and all-cause mortality data were obtained from the United Nations. The lifetime risk of developing and dying from lung cancer globally and across different regions was estimated by multiple primary adjustment method. ［Results］ The global lifetime risk of developing lung cancer was 3.59%［95% confidence interval(CI）： 3.58%~3.59%］， ranking third among all cancer types. There were significant gender and regional differences in lifetime risk values. The risk for male was 4.43% (95%CI： 4.42%~4.44%)， which was higher than that for female (2.71%， 95%CI： 2.70%~2.72%)， with a male-to-female ratio of 1.63. Among regions with varying human development index (HDI) levels， the risk increased with HDI levels， in very high HDI regions risk was 5.36% (95%CI： 5.34%~5.37%)， while in low HDI regions the risk was 0.34% (95%CI： 0.33%~0.34%). Among the 20 global regions， East Asia had the highest lifetime risk of 7.53% (95%CI： 7.52%~7.55%)， while West Africa had the lowest risk of 0.16% (95%CI： 0.16%~0.17%). The global lifetime risk of dying from lung cancer was 2.78% (95%CI： 2.78%~2.78%)， ranking the first among all cancer types. There were significant sex and regional differences in lifetime death risk values. The risk for male was 3.64% (95%CI： 3.63%~3.64%)， which was higher than that for female (1.89%， 95%CI： 1.89%~1.90%)， with a male-to-female ratio of 1.93. Among regions with varying HDI levels， the risk increased with HDI levels， in very high HDI regions the risk was 3.98% (95%CI： 3.97%~3.99%)， while in low HDI regions the risk was 0.31% (95%CI： 0.31%~0.31%). Among the 20 global regions， the Federated States of Micronesia/Polynesia had the highest death risk of 5.80% (95%CI： 4.98%~6.62%)， while West Africa had the lowest risk of 0.15% (95%CI： 0.15%~0.16%). The lifetime risk of developing and dying from lung cancer in China was 7.54% (95%CI： 7.52%~7.56%) and 5.88% (95%CI： 5.87%~5.90%)， respectively， both ranking the first among all cancer types. ［Conclusion］ The lifetime risk of developing and dying from lung cancer remains high globally and across different regions， with a particularly heavy burden in high-HDI areas. In China， both the lifetime risk of developing and dying from lung cancer are higher than the global average. This highlights the need for continued enhancement of comprehensive prevention and control measures， including addressing lung cancer-related risk factors， as well as improving screening， early diagnosis， and treatment efforts to reduce the lung cancer burden. |
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