| 沈飞琼,熊海娟,费兴林,等.1991—2020年浙江省嘉善县恶性肿瘤发病与死亡分析及2021—2035年变化趋势预测[J].中国肿瘤,2025,34(1):17-25. |
| 1991—2020年浙江省嘉善县恶性肿瘤发病与死亡分析及2021—2035年变化趋势预测 |
| Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Jiashan County of Zhejiang Province from 1991 to 2020 and Prediction of Change Trend from 2021 to 2035 |
| 投稿时间：2024-07-04 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2025.01.A004 |
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| 中文关键词: 恶性肿瘤 发病率 死亡率 趋势分析 预测 浙江 |
| 英文关键词:malignant tumor incidence mortality trend analysis prediction Zhejiang |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要： ［目的］ 分析1991—2020年浙江省嘉善县恶性肿瘤发病及死亡情况并预测其2021—2035年趋势。［方法］ 收集并整理 1991—2020年浙江省嘉善县恶性肿瘤发病及死亡病例，通过计算发病率、死亡率、标化率等指标描述发病与死亡特征。运用 Joinpoint 模型计算年度变化百分比（annual percentage change，APC）及平均年度变化百分比（average annual percentage change，AAPC），分析肿瘤发病与死亡变化趋势。采用年龄-时期-队列模型对所有恶性肿瘤2021—2035年发病与死亡趋势进行预测，并计算预测年度变化百分比（estimated annual percentage change，EAPC）。［结果］ 1991—2000年、2001—2010年及2011—2020年嘉善县恶性肿瘤发病中标率分别为159.06/10万、187.25/10万及254.37/10万，25~54岁年龄段女性与65岁及以上人群发病率升高趋势更明显。肺癌、胃癌、结直肠癌、肝癌及女性乳腺癌是1991—2020年间的主要发病癌种。恶性肿瘤发病率在1991—2020年呈上升趋势（AAPC=2.17%），预计2021—2035年将继续上升（EAPC=3.03%）。1991—2000年、2001—2010年及2011—2020年嘉善县恶性肿瘤死亡中标率分别为119.74/10万、117.79/10万及100.11/10万。肺癌、肝癌、胃癌、结直肠癌、食管癌及胰腺癌是1991—2020年间的主要死亡癌种。恶性肿瘤死亡率在1991—2020年呈下降趋势（AAPC=-1.00%），预计2021—2035年将继续下降（EAPC= -1.67%）。［结论］ 虽然嘉善县恶性肿瘤死亡率在逐步下降，但发病率显著上升，并在2021—2035年将继续呈升高趋势。肺癌、肝癌、胃癌、结直肠癌高发，应密切关注重点人群，加强对高发癌种的风险因素控制。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract: ［Purpose］ To analyze the trends of cancer incidence and mortality from 1991 to 2020 in Jiashan County of Zhejiang Province， and to predict trends from 2021 to 2035. ［Methods］ Cancer cases and deaths from 1991 to 2020 in Jiashan County were collected. The crude incidence rate and mortality rate， age-standardized rate (ASR) were calculated. The annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) were calculated by Joinpoint model to analyze the trend of cancer incidence and mortality. The age-period-cohort model was used to predict the trends of cancer incidence and mortality from 2021 to 2035 and the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated. ［Results］ The age-standardized incidence rates by Chinese standard population (ASIRC) in Jiashan were 159.06/105， 187.25/105， and 254.37/105 during 1991—2000， 2001—2010， and 2011—2020， respectively. The trends in young and middle-aged women and people above 65 years old were more predominant. Lung， stomach， colorectal， liver and female breast cancers were major incident cancers for the period from 1991 to 2020. The cancer incidence showed an increasing trend from 1991 to 2020 (AAPC=2.17%， P<0.05) and is expected to continue to increase over 2021 to 2035 (EAPC=3.03%， P<0.05). The age-standardized mortality rates by Chinese standard population (ASMRC) in Jiashan were 119.74/105， 117.79/105， and 100.11/105 during 1991—2000， 2001—2010， and 2011—2020， respectively. Lung， liver， stomach， colorectal， esophageal， and pancreatic cancers were leading causes of cancer deaths from 1991 to 2020. The cancer mortality showed a decreasing trend from 1991 to 2020 (AAPC=-1.00%， P<0.05) and is expected to continue to decline over 2021 to 2035(EAPC=-1.67%， P<0.05). ［Conclusion］ The mortality rate from cancers has been gradually declined in Jiashan County， while the incidence rate has increased significantly and will continue to increase in the next 15 years. High incidence of lung cancer， liver cancer， gastric cancer and colorectal cancer makes it crucial to pay close attention to key groups and strengthen the control of risk factors of high incidence cancer. |
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