| 韩颖颖,蔡 波,林 玲,等.2009—2019年江苏省肿瘤登记地区女性乳腺癌发病趋势及年龄变化分析[J].中国肿瘤,2024,33(12):970-976. |
| 2009—2019年江苏省肿瘤登记地区女性乳腺癌发病趋势及年龄变化分析 |
| Trends of Incidence and Age at Onset of Female Breast Cancer in Jiangsu Cancer Registration Areas from 2009 to 2019 |
| 投稿时间：2024-02-08 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2024.12.A002 |
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| 中文关键词: 肿瘤登记 女性乳腺癌 发病率 年龄 趋势 江苏 |
| 英文关键词:cancer registry female breast cancer incidence rate age trend Jiangsu |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］ 分析2009—2019年江苏省肿瘤登记地区女性乳腺癌发病趋势及年龄变化情况。［方法］ 从2009—2019年江苏省16个登记数据连续完整、且质控合格的肿瘤登记处资料中，抽取女性乳腺癌新发病例数据，按地区分层计算各年份女性乳腺癌的发病率、中国人口标化发病率（中标率）、实际平均发病年龄、标化平均发病年龄及各年龄组标化发病构成等指标。利用Joinpoint软件对发病趋势进行分析，计算平均年度变化百分比（average annual percentage change，AAPC）。利用线性回归模型探讨平均发病年龄与年份之间的相关性。构建出生队列模型，分析不同年份出生的各年龄组女性乳腺癌的发病率及其变化趋势。［结果］ 江苏省肿瘤登记地区女性乳腺癌发病率和中标率分别由2009年的24.39/10万和18.23/10万上升至 2019年的46.72/10万和30.27/10万，均呈明显上升趋势（发病率：AAPC=6.97%，95%CI：5.26%~8.70%；中标率：AAPC=4.67%，95%CI：3.00%~6.37%）。女性乳腺癌实际和标化平均发病年龄分别由2009年的54.10岁和52.89岁增长至2019年的56.23岁和53.36岁。全省（β=0.21，P<0.001）、城市地区（β=0.18，P<0.001）、农村地区（β=0.25，P<0.001）女性乳腺癌实际发病年龄均随年份的增加而上升；对人口结构进行标化后，全省（β=0.05，P=0.024）和农村地区（β=0.09，P=0.008）女性乳腺癌标化平均发病年龄均随年份的增加而上升。2009—2019年间，各年龄组女性乳腺癌的发病率均呈明显上升趋势，年均增幅在3.26%至7.79%（P均<0.05），且农村地区发病率上升速度高于城市地区。60岁以上女性乳腺癌发病构成和标化发病构成均呈上升趋势（P均<0.05）。［结论］ 2009—2019年江苏省肿瘤登记地区女性乳腺癌发病率呈上升趋势，平均发病年龄呈后移趋势。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract： ［Purpose］ To investigate the trends of incidence and age at onset of female breast cancer in Jiangsu cancer registration areas from 2009 to 2019. ［Methods］ The continuous monitoring data of female breast cancer from 2009 to 2019 were collected from 16 cancer registries in Jiangsu Province. All datasets were checked and evaluated based on data quality control criteria and were included in the analysis. Crude rate(CR)， age-standardized incidence rate by Chinese standard population (ASIRC)， the average annual percentage change (AAPC)， crude and adjusted mean age at onset were calculated. Incidence rates stratified by regions and age groups were calculated. Age-period-cohort model was used to analyze the changes of cancer incidence and age-adjusted mean ages. ［Results］ The incidence CR of female breast cancer was significantly increased from 24.39/105 in 2009 to 46.72/105 in 2019 with an AAPC in CR of 6.97% (95%CI：5.26%~8.70%) and AAPC in ASIRC of 4.67% (95%CI： 3.00%~6.37%). The crude mean age and adjusted mean age at onset increased from 54.10 and 52.89 years old in 2009 to 56.23 and 53.36 years old in 2019， respectively. Crude mean age at onset increased significantly over time in all registry areas (β=0.21， P<0.001)， urban (β=0.18， P<0.001) and rural (β=0.25， P<0.001) areas， while adjusted mean age at onset remained stable in all registry areas (β=0.05， P=0.024) and rural areas(β=0.09， P=0.008). From 2009 to 2019， the incidence rate of female breast cancer of all age groups showed upward trends，with an average annual growth rate of 3.26% to 7.79% (all P<0.05)， and the incidence rate in rural areas increased faster than that in urban areas. The age composition of breast cancer onset and standardized age composition of onset in women over 60 years old showed an upward trend (all P<0.05). ［Conclusion］ The incidence rate of female breast cancer in Jiangsu Province increased from 2009 to 2019， and the mean age of onset showed a backward trend. |
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