| 张 敏,段朝晖,徐杰茹,等.基于GBD数据分析与预测2000—2030年中国胰腺癌发病与死亡趋势[J].中国肿瘤,2022,31(11):862-868. |
| 基于GBD数据分析与预测2000—2030年中国胰腺癌发病与死亡趋势 |
| Prediction of Incidence and Mortality of Pancreatic Cancer in China from 2000 to 2030 Based on Global Burden of Disease Study |
| 投稿时间：2022-04-26 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2022.11.A003 |
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| 中文关键词: 胰腺癌 发病率 死亡率 趋势分析 预测 中国 |
| 英文关键词:pancreatic cancer incidence mortality trend analysis forecast China |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金（81673107） |
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| 摘要点击次数: 790 |
| 全文下载次数: 172 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］ 基于全球疾病负担研究（Global Burden of Disease study，GBD）数据库，分析2000—2019年中国胰腺癌发病和死亡趋势，并对2020—2030年中国胰腺癌发病和死亡趋势进行预测。［方法］ 提取GBD数据库中我国2000—2019年全年龄段胰腺癌发病率和死亡率数据，利用Joinpoint模型进行趋势分析，基于R4.0.5软件建立GM(1，1)模型，对2020—2030年中国胰腺癌发病和死亡趋势进行预测。［结果］ 2000—2019年中国胰腺癌发病率和死亡率均呈上升趋势，平均每年增长4.88%、4.87%，且变化趋势趋于一致；建立的GM(1，1)预测模型精度等级高，可以进行中长期预测；预测结果显示2020—2030年我国胰腺癌的发病率和死亡率将会持续上升。［结论］ 我国胰腺癌发病率和死亡率在过去一段时间内呈上升趋势，并且未来可能持续上升，需进一步加强对胰腺癌的防控。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract：［Purpose］ To analyze the incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer in China from 2000 to 2019， and to predict their trends from 2020 to 2030 based on Global Burden of Disease study(GBD). ［Methods］ The crude incidence and mortality data of pancreatic cancer among all ages in China from 2000 to 2019 were extracted from GBD database. The Joinpoint model was used to analyze the trend of pancreatic cancer using R4.0.5 software; GM(1， 1) model was established to predict the incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer in China from 2020 to 2030. ［Results］ The incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer in China showed an upward trend from 2000 to 2019， with an average annual percentage change(AAPC) of 4.88% and 4.87%. The established GM(1， 1) prediction model showed that the incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer would continue to rise from 2020 to 2030. ［Conclusion］ The incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer in China have been increasing and may continue to rise in the future， and the prevention and control of pancreatic cancer should be further strengthened. |
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