徐源佑,张永辉,丁璐璐,等.1972—2016年江苏省启东市膀胱癌生存率长期趋势分析[J].中国肿瘤,2022,31(9):710-715.
1972—2016年江苏省启东市膀胱癌生存率长期趋势分析
Long-term Trend of Bladder Cancer Survival Rate in Qidong from 1972 to 2016
投稿时间:2022-03-11  
DOI:10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2022.09.A005
中文关键词:  膀胱癌  肿瘤登记  生存率  趋势  江苏
英文关键词:bladder cancer  cancer registration  survival  trends  Jiangsu
基金项目:
作者单位
徐源佑 南通大学附属启东医院启东市人民医院启东肝癌防治研究所 
张永辉 南通大学附属启东医院启东市人民医院启东肝癌防治研究所 
丁璐璐 南通大学附属启东医院启东市人民医院启东肝癌防治研究所 
陈永胜 南通大学附属启东医院启东市人民医院启东肝癌防治研究所 
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中文摘要:
      摘 要:[目的] 对1972—2016年启东市全人群膀胱癌发病病例进行生存率趋势分析。[方法] 对2 271例膀胱癌登记病例进行生存结局随访,随访截止日期为2021年12月31日。运用SURV 3.01软件中Hakulinen方法一计算观察生存率(OSR)和相对生存率(RSR),应用Hakulinen氏似然比检验法进行统计学检验。用Joinpoint 4.7.0.0软件进行Joinpoint 回归分析,计算膀胱癌生存率年度变化百分比(APC),对膀胱癌总体生存率、分性别及分年龄别生存率作时间趋势分析,判断率的长期趋势变化是否存在统计学差异,并用SAS 9.2软件采用时间序列分析中的ARIMA模型进行膀胱癌生存率趋势预测。[结果] 启东市1972—2016年膀胱癌1年、5年、10年OSR分别为64.91%、40.19%和29.43%,1年、5年、10年RSR分别为69.02%、54.52%和54.95%。1972—2016年各时期生存率分析,1年RSR从1972—1976年的54.47%升至2012—2016年的80.09%,5年RSR从1972—1976年的31.50%升至2012—2016年的64.66%,10年RSR从1972—1976年的29.05%升至2007—2011年的57.50%,9个时期的RSR上升趋势有统计学意义(χ2=167.09,P<0.001)。男性5年RSR为55.14%,女性5年RSR为52.38%,男女性之间RSR差异有统计学意义(χ2=844.67,P=0.027)。35~44岁、45~54岁、55~64岁、65~74岁及≥75岁的5年RSR分别为74.34%、64.66%、60.00%、53.38%及43.26%,各年龄组之间RSR差异有统计学意义(χ2=598.57,P<0.001)。APC结果显示,启东市膀胱癌5年RSR的APC为1.40%(95%CI:0.85%~1.95%,t=5.16,P<0.001),其中男性APC为0.88%(95%CI:0.31%~1.46%,t=3.11,P=0.003),女性APC为9.02%(95%CI:4.70%~13.51%,t=4.31,P<0.001),上升趋势均有统计学意义。年龄别5年RSR的1972—2016年长期趋势分析结果显示,35~44岁的APC为-0.91%(95%CI:-1.85%~0.05%,t=-2.25,P=0.059),45~54岁的APC为0.99%(95%CI:-0.38%~2.38%,t=1.71,P=0.132),趋势无统计学意义;55~64岁的APC为2.00%(95%CI:1.56%~2.44%,t=10.84,P<0.001),65~74岁的APC为1.83%(95%CI:0.52%~3.15%,t=3.31,P=0.013),≥75岁的APC为3.36%(95%CI:2.45%~4.28%,t=8.84,P<0.001),上升趋势均有统计学意义。膀胱癌生存率结果预测,至2026年5年OSR升至60.99%,5年RSR升至79.60%。[结论] 45年间启东市全人群膀胱癌的生存率有了较大的提高,但仍有上升空间,应当继续重视膀胱癌的防治研究。
英文摘要:
      Abstract: [Purpose] To analyze the trend of survival rate of bladder cancer in the whole population in Qidong from 1972 to 2016. [Methods] A total of 2 271 bladder cancer cases were followed up until December 31, 2021. The observed survival rate(OSR) and relative survival rate(RSR) were calculated with Hakulinen method Ⅰ in SURV 3.01 software, and Hakulinen’s likelihood ratio was used for statistical tests. Joinpoint regression analysis was performed to calculate the annual percentage change(APC) of bladder cancer survival rate, ARIMA model was used to predict the trend of bladder cancer survival rate with the SAS 9.2 software. [Results] The 1-, 5-, and 10-year OSR of bladder cancer in Qidong City from 1972 to 2016 were 64.91%, 40.19%, and 29.43%, and the 1-, 5-, and 10-year RSR were 69.02%, 54.52%, and 54.95%, respectively. The 1-year RSR increased from 54.47% in 1972—1976 to 80.09% in 2012—2016, and the 5-year RSR increased from 31.50% in 1972—1976 to 64.66 % in 2012—2016; the 10-year RSR increased from 29.05% in 1972—1976 to 57.50% in 2007—2011(χ2=167.09, P<0.001). The 5-year RSR of males was 55.14%, and the 5-year RSR of females was 52.38%(χ2=844.67, P=0.027). The 5-year RSR on age groups 35~44, 45~54, 55~64, 65~74 and ≥75 were 74.34%, 64.66%, 60.00%, 53.38% and 43.26%, respectively(χ2=598.57, P<0.001). The APC of 5-RSR was 1.40%(95%CI: 0.85%~1.95%, t=5.16, P<0.001), which for males was 0.88%(95%CI: 0.31%~1.46%, t=3.11, P=0.003), and for females was 9.02%(95%CI: 4.70%~13.51%, t=4.31, P<0.001). Long-term trend of age-specific 5-RSR showed that from 1972 to 2016, the APC of 35~44 age group was -0.91%(95%CI: -1.85%~0.05%, t=-2.25, P=0.059), and the APC of 45~54 age group was 0.99%(95%CI: -0.38%~2.38%, t=1.71, P=0.132); APC of 55~64 age group was 2.00%(95%CI: 1.56%~2.44%, t=10.84, P<0.001), and APC of 65~74 age group was 1.83%(95%CI: 0.52%~3.15%, t=3.31, P=0.013), APC of ≥75 age group was 3.36%(95%CI: 2.45%~4.28%, t=8.84, P<0.001). The predicting results showed that by 2026, the 5-year OSR will be increased to 60.99%, and the 5-year RSR will be increased to 79.60%. [Conclusion] The survival rate of bladder cancer in the whole population of Qidong City has been greatly improved in the past 45 years, but it still need to be improved further, so we should continue to pay attention to the prevention and treatment of bladder cancer.
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