| 刘 硕,王 硕,李慧超.2000—2017年北京市前列腺癌发病和死亡流行趋势及发病年龄变化特征分析[J].中国肿瘤,2021,30(7):495-505. |
| 2000—2017年北京市前列腺癌发病和死亡流行趋势及发病年龄变化特征分析 |
| Analysis on the Trends of Incidence，Mortality and Characteristics of Age of Onset for Prostate Cancer in Beijing，2000—2017 |
| 中文关键词 修订日期：2020-06-24 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2021.07.A003 |
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| 中文关键词: 前列腺癌 发病率 死亡率 时间趋势 北京 年龄 |
| 英文关键词:prostate cancer incidence mortality time trend Beijing age |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］了解北京市前列腺癌的发病与死亡流行趋势及年龄变化特征。［方法］利用北京市肿瘤防治研究办公室2000—2017年登记的前列腺癌数据，计算前列腺癌发病和死亡粗率、中国人口标化率、世界人口标化率（世标率）、年度变化百分比（APC）、0~74岁发病和死亡累积率、年龄别发病率、平均发病年龄、标化平均发病年龄、60岁及以上年龄发病构成比，采用2000年全国人口普查的标准人口年龄结构和世界标准人口构成（Segi）进行标化，分城区和郊区分析发病和死亡率以及发病年龄随时间变化趋势。［结果］ 2000—2017年间北京市共确诊前列腺癌16 709例，发病粗率为15.00/10万，发病世标率为7.72/10万，其中城区的发病率高于郊区（9.10/10万vs 5.00/10万）。全市发病世标率由2000年的3.61/10万上升到2017年的10.77/10万，APC为6.67%。前列腺癌发病率在50岁前较低，50岁后呈现快速升高趋势。全市50~59岁年龄组年龄别发病率增长速度最快，80岁及以上年龄组年龄别发病率增长速度最慢。除郊区标化平均发病年龄与年份之间的相关性无统计学意义外(β=0.04，P=0.533)，全市(β=-0.13，P=0.007)和城区(β=-0.17，P<0.001)前列腺癌标化平均发病年龄随着年份的增加而下降。2000—2017年北京市整体(β=-0.24，P<0.001)和城区(β=-0.32，P<0.001)60岁及以上前列腺癌患者占比呈现下降趋势，且差异具有统计学意义，郊区呈现上升趋势(β=0.19，P=0.266)，但差异无统计学意义。2000—2017年间前列腺患者死亡粗率为5.56/10万，死亡世标率为2.53/10万，其中城区的死亡率高于郊区（2.74/10万vs 1.99/10万）。全市死亡世标率由2000年的1.29/10万上升到2017年的3.03/10万，APC为5.79%。［结论］ 2000—2017年北京市前列腺癌发病率逐年升高，郊区增长速度高于城区。全市和城区呈现发病年龄前移趋势，郊区尚未出现此趋势。2000—2017年北京市前列腺癌死亡率呈现先上升后趋于平稳的变化特点，但仍需进一步观察。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract： ［Purpose］ To analyze the trends and characteristics of incidence and mortality of prostate cancer in Beijing. ［Methods］ Using data collected from Beijing office for Cancer Prevention and Control from 2000 to 2017， crude incidence and mortality， age-standardized incidence and mortality， annual percentage change(APC)， accumulative incidence and mortality rate(0～74 years)， age-specific incidence rate， mean age at onset， standardized mean age at onset， and proportion of patients aged over 60 years old were analyzed. Chinese population census in 2000 and Segi’s population structure were used to calculate age-standardized rates. Analyses were stratified by area(urban and suburb) to observe trends of incidence， mortality rates and age of onset for prostate cancer in Beijing. ［Results］ There were 16 709 cases of prostate cancer newly diagnosed from 2000 to 2017 in Beijing with crude incidence rate of 15.00/105 and age-standardized incidence rate of 7.72/105. Incidence rate in urban area was higher than that in suburb area(9.10/105 vs 5.00/105). Age standardized incidence rate raised from 3.61/105 in 2000 to 10.77/105 in 2017， with APC of 6.67%. The incidence rate of prostate cancer was quite low before 50 years old， and increased sharply afterwards. The fastest incidence rate increase was observed in the age group of 50 to 59 years， while the slowest incidence rate growth was observed in the age group of 80 and above. The overall standardized mean age of onset of prostate cancer in Beijing(β=-0.13， P=0.007) and in urban areas of Beijing(β=-0.17， P<0.001) decreased with years； but there was no significant change of onset age with the years in suburb areas(β=0.04， P=0.533). The proportion of patients over 60 years old after age standardized in all areas of Beijing(β=-0.24， P<0.001) and in urban areas(β=-0.32， P<0.001) showed a decrease pattern from 2000 to 2017； however， the change in suburb areas of Beijing was not statistically significant(β=0.19， P=0.266). Crude mortality rate was 5.56/105 during the period of 2000 to 2017 in Beijing with age standardized mortality rate of 2.53/105. Mortality rate was higher in urban than that in suburb area(2.74/105 vs 1.99/105). Age-standardized mortality rate of prostate cancer in Beijing raised from 1.29/105 in 2000 to 3.03/105 in 2017， with APC of 5.79%. ［Conclusion］ The incidence of prostate cancer was rising continually from 2000 to 2017. The APC of suburb areas was higher than that of urban areas. The trend of mean age at onset in Beijing and urban areas of Beijing were getting younger， while the same pattern didn’t observed in suburb areas of Beijing. Trend of mortality rate of prostate cancer in Beijing was firstly elevated， and then reached a plateau from 2000 to 2017， for which the further analysis is needed. |
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