| 覃向向,李文庆,李哲轩.2012—2019年山东省临朐县胃癌发病与死亡趋势分析[J].中国肿瘤,2021,30(6):415-421. |
| 2012—2019年山东省临朐县胃癌发病与死亡趋势分析 |
| Trends of Gastric Cancer Incidence and Mortality from 2012 to 2019 in Linqu County，Shandong Province |
| 中文关键词 修订日期：2020-12-09 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2021.06.A003 |
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| 中文关键词: 胃癌 发病率 死亡率 趋势 筛查年龄 山东 |
| 英文关键词:gastric cancer incidence mortality trend screening age Shandong |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划（2018YFC1313100）；第三批北京市属医学科研院所公益发展改革试点项目（京医研2019-1）；北京市自然科学基金（7194245） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］ 分析山东省临朐县2012—2019年间胃癌发病率与死亡率年度变化趋势及年龄组变化情况。［方法］根据收集整理的临朐县2012年1月1日至2019年12月31日肿瘤发病和死亡登记资料，计算各年度胃癌粗发病/死亡率和中国人口标化发病/死亡率，结合Joinpoint线性回归分析模型来估计发病率及死亡率的年度变化百分比（annual percentage change，APC），以期评价胃癌发病率与死亡率变化趋势。分析2012—2019年合计胃癌发病/死亡率年龄别变化情况并通过Permutation检验探索发病与死亡的年龄转折点。［结果］ 2012—2019年间胃癌新发病例4 731例（含贲门癌309例和非贲门癌4 422例），因胃癌死亡3 087例（含贲门癌125例和非贲门癌2 962例），当地胃癌以非贲门癌为主。2012—2019年间胃癌总体粗发病率和粗死亡率分别为65.48/10万和42.13/10万，中标率分别为48.98/10万和30.99/10万。Joinpoint线性回归分析结果显示，2012—2019年间胃癌粗发病率和粗死亡率整体均呈下降趋势（粗发病率APC=-4.5%；粗死亡率APC=-3.4%），与中标率APC的趋势整体一致。按照胃癌发病部位分层，非贲门癌的粗发病率和粗死亡率合计APC分别为-5.1%和-3.7%，但贲门癌发病率和死亡率趋势整体平稳，略有上升。该地区各年龄别胃癌发病率在40岁之前相对较低，40岁出现转折后随年龄增加而显著上升，Permutation检验发现男性和女性年龄转折点分别出现在40岁、45岁；而死亡率在50岁之前相对较低，男性和女性死亡拐点分别为50岁、55岁。［结论］ 临朐县胃癌发病率和死亡率均呈明显下降趋势，但仍显著高于全国平均水平。发病率与死亡率均随年龄增加而升高，年龄别发病和死亡分别于40岁和50岁后显著上升，女性发病和死亡的年龄拐点一般比男性晚5岁出现。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract：［Purpose］ To analyze the trends of gastric cancer(GC) incidence and mortality from 2012 to 2019 in Linqu County，Shandong Province. ［Methods］ Based on the data of Linqu Cancer Registry from January 2012 to December 2019，the crude incidence and mortality，age-standardized incidence and mortality by Chinese standard population(ASR China) in 2000 were calculated. The changing trends of incidence and mortality were analyzed and the annual percentage change(APC) was calculated based on Joinpoint linear regression model. GC incidence and mortality trends were plotted by age to explore the tendency turning points by Permutation test. ［Results］ A total of 4 731 new GC incident cases(309 cardia GCs and 4 422 non-cardia GCs) were documented between 2012 and 2019; and 3 087 cases died from GC(125 cardia GCs and 2 962 non-cardia GCs) during the same period. The crude incidence and mortality of GC were 65.48/105 and 42.13/105，respectively. The ASR China was 48.98/105 for incidence and 30.99/105 for mortality. Joinpoint linear regression model revealed a significant decrease of incidence(APC of crude incidence=-4.5%) and mortality(APC of crude mortality=-3.4%) from 2012 to 2019，in accordance with the trend of standardized rate. Analyses by anatomical location found that the crude incidence and mortality of non-cardia GC decreased by 5.1% and 3.7%，respectively，but the incidence and mortality of cardia GC remained relative stable，even with slightly increase. The age-specific incidence for GC was relatively low before 40 years old，but showed a significant upward trend as age increased. The age turning point of GC incidence was 40 years for males and 45 years for females while the age turning point of mortality was 50 years for males and 55 years for females，respectively. ［Conclusion］Although the incidence and mortality of GC show a decreasing trend，GC remains a major public health problem in Linqu County. GC incidence and mortality increased with age，and begin to rapidly arise after 40 and 50 years old，respectively. |
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