| 杨之洵,陈万青.癌症负担预测方法学的研究进展[J].中国肿瘤,2019,28(4):241-245. |
| 癌症负担预测方法学的研究进展 |
| Progress of Research on the Methodology of Prediction of Cancer Burden |
| 投稿时间：2018-10-11 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2019.04.A001 |
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| 中文关键词: 癌症 发病 死亡 预测 模型 |
| 英文关键词:cancer incidence mortality prediction model |
| 基金项目:中国医学科学院医学与健康科技创新工程（2016-12M-2-004）；科技部基础工作专项（2014FY121100） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：目前，癌症已成为我国居民的首要死因，且随着人口的老龄化，癌症负担日益严重。根据现有数据对今后癌症负担进行准确的预测是制定中长期癌症防控策略的基础。利用长期、高质量的癌症发病或死亡数据构建适宜的模型，可分析癌症负担的变化趋势并对负担进行预测。本文归纳了国内外针对癌症负担预测的研究，对当下应用最广泛的几种预测模型进行了介绍。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract：Cancer has become the leading cause of death in China and cancer burden is getting heavier along with the ageing of population. Precise prediction of cancer burden based on current data is the prerequisite for the making of mid- and long-term cancer prevention policies. Appropriate models fitted with long-term and high-quality data on cancer incidence and mortality could be used to analyze the change of trend of cancer burden and predict the burden in the future. Herein we summarize recent researches about the prediction of cancer burden and make a brief introduction of the widely used methods. |
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