| 徐红丽,姜 玉,张 薇.上海市长宁区1973~2013年肺癌发病与死亡趋势分析[J].中国肿瘤,2018,27(11):830-835. |
| 上海市长宁区1973~2013年肺癌发病与死亡趋势分析 |
| Time Trends of Incidence and Mortality of Lung Cancer in Shanghai Changning District，1973～2013 |
| 投稿时间：2018-06-15 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2018.11.A003 |
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| 中文关键词: 肺癌 发病率 死亡率 趋势分析 年龄—时期—队列模型 上海 |
| 英文关键词:lung cancer incidence rate mortality rate trend analysis age-period-cohort model Shanghai |
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| 摘要点击次数: 1893 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］ 分析上海市长宁区1973~2013年肺癌发病和死亡的长期时间变化趋势和分布特征。［方法］ 根据1973~2013年上海市长宁区肺癌发病与死亡登记资料，首先计算肺癌的粗发病率和粗死亡率，以及中国人口标化率、世界人口标化率（简称：中标率/世标率）。其次，利用Joinpoint软件对肺癌的发病和死亡率变化趋势进行分析，计算年度变化百分比（APC）。同时应用年龄—时期—队列模型，评估年龄、时期和队列对发病和死亡趋势的效应。［结果］ 1973~2013年期间，上海市长宁区男性肺癌新发病例7529例，女性3526例，粗发病率分别为69.08/10万和32.85/10万；男性肺癌死亡病例6799例，女性2953例，粗死亡率分别为62.38/10万和27.50/10万。1973~2013年间，肺癌的粗发病和死亡率均不断上升（P<0.05）。从世标率来看，男性肺癌发病和死亡率APC以平均每年0.9%和1.4%的幅度下降；女性发病率APC以平均每年0.5%的幅度升高，而死亡率APC平均每年下降0.8%。年龄—时期—队列模型结果提示，年龄、时期和队列效应对肺癌发病和死亡趋势的变化有不同程度的影响。［结论］ 1973~2013年期间，上海市长宁区居民肺癌粗发病率和死亡率显著上升，而男性标化发病率和标化死亡率下降，女性标化发病率上升但标化死亡率下降。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract：［Purpose］ To analyze the long-term time trends of incidence and mortality of lung cancer from 1973 to 2013 in Changning district of Shanghai. ［Methods］ Based on the cancer registration data of incidence and mortality in Changning district of Shanghai from 1973 to 2013，the crude incidence and mortality rates，the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates(ASRs) by Chinese and world standard populations(ASR China，ASR world) were calculated. Joinpoint software was applied to analyze the incidence and mortality trends and to calculate annual percent changes(APCs). Age-period-cohort models were constructed to evaluate their effects on the time trends of lung cancer incidence and mortality. ［Results］ Total of 7529 male and 3526 female lung cancer cases were identified. The crude incidence rates for male and female were 69.08/105 and 32.85/105. There were 6799 male and 2953 female lung cancer deaths in 1973～2013. The crude mortality rates were 62.38/105 and 27.50/105 for male and female. Both the crude incidence and mortality rates for lung cancer showed steady rising trends during 1973 to 2013(P<0.05). For world standardized rates，the APC values for incidence and mortality rates were -0.9% and -1.4% for male，0.5% and -0.8% for female，respectively. The results of age-period-cohort analysis showed that the effects of age，period and birth cohort had an impact on lung cancer incidence and mortality in this area. ［Conclusion］ The crude incidence and mortality rates of lung cancer in Changning district during 1973～2013 are still increasing. For age-standardized rates，the decreasing trends are observed for both incidence and mortality in male，as well as mortality in female，while the increasing trend was observed for incidence in female. |
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