| 胡文斌,秦 威,张 婷.江苏省昆山市1981~2014年食管癌死亡趋势及率差分解分析[J].中国肿瘤,2016,25(4):260-266. |
| 江苏省昆山市1981~2014年食管癌死亡趋势及率差分解分析 |
| Temporal Trend and Difference Decomposition Analysis of Esophageal Carcinoma Mortality in Kunshan，Jiangsu Province，1981~2014 |
| 投稿时间：2015-11-06 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2016.04.A004 |
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| 中文关键词: 食管癌 死亡率 年度变化百分比 人口因素 差别分解法 |
| 英文关键词:esophageal cancer mortality annual percent change demographic factors different decomposition |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］ 探究昆山市1981~2014年食管癌死亡趋势及定量估计影响因素。［方法］ 食管癌死亡病例来源于死因监测；计算食管癌粗死亡率与年龄标化死亡率；使用平均年度变化百分比（annual percent change，APC）评价食管癌死亡率变化趋势。以0~74岁累积死亡率来评价食管癌历年死亡风险。采用率差别分解法分析人口因素对食管癌死亡率变化的贡献。［结果］ 1981~2014年食管癌年龄标化死亡率在男女合计（APC=-4.2%，95%CI：-4.8%~-3.6%）、男性（APC=-4.3%，95%CI：-4.9%~-3.7%）和女性（APC=-4.4%，95%CI：-5.1%~-3.7%）人群中均呈现明显下降趋势。食管癌0~74岁累积死亡率由1981年的2.85%下降到2014年的0.45%（APC=-5.0%，95%CI：-5.7%~-4.3%），食管癌死亡的风险在0~74岁年龄组逐渐降低。食管癌死亡率的下降是人口因素与非人口因素共同作用结果，其中人口因素贡献在男女合计、男性及女性人群中分别为-68.66%、-68.39%和-127.43%。［结论］ 昆山市1981~2014年食管癌死亡率在非人口因素作用下明显下降，但是这种下降趋势受到了人口因素的阻碍。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract：［Purpose］ To estimate the temporal trend of esophageal cancer mortality and quantitatively estimate the influence factors in Kunshan，Jiangsu province，1981~2014. ［Methods］ Esophageal cancer death cases were derived from vital registration system. Esophageal cancer crude mortality and age standardized mortality（ASR） were calculated，and annual percent changes（APC） with 95% confidence interval was estimated to quantify the change in mortality according to gender. Cumulative death rate（0~74 years） was used to estimate the death risks. Difference decomposing method was applied to estimate the contribution of demographic and non-demographic factors for the change of mortality. ［Results］ Esophageal cancer declined in both gender（APC=-4.2%，95%CI：-4.8%~-3.6%），male （APC=-4.3%，95%CI：-4.9%~-3.7%），and female（APC=-4.4%，95%CI：-5.1%~-3.7%）. Moreover，the cumulative mortality of esophageal cancer declined from 2.85% in 1981 to 0.45% in 2014（APC=-5.0%，95%CI：-5.7%~-4.3%）. The decrease of mortality of esophagus cancer dued to the effect of the demographic and non-demographic factors，where the proportion of demographic in both gender，male and female were -68.66%，-68.39%，and -127.43%，respectively. ［Conclusion］ The mortality of esophageal cancer significantly declined in Kunshan from 1981 to 2014，whereas the decline was hindered by the factor of demographic. |
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