| 陈建国,朱 健,张永辉.肝癌流行趋势的改变:基于启东40年癌症登记资料的分析[J].中国肿瘤,2014,23(8):621-628. |
| 肝癌流行趋势的改变:基于启东40年癌症登记资料的分析 |
| Incidence Trend of Liver Cancer：An Analysis of 40 Year’s Data from Qidong Population-based Cancer Registry |
| 投稿时间：2014-04-12 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2014.08.A001 |
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| 中文关键词: 肝癌 发病率 趋势 流行病学 启东 |
| 英文关键词:liver cancer incidence epidemiology Qidong |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］ 探讨启东市1972~2011年肝癌发病趋势的变化，为肝癌的流行趋势及预防控制的评估提供决策依据。［方法］ 基于启东市癌症发病登记数据库，计算肝癌粗发病率（CR）、中国人口标化率（中标率）、世界人口标化率（世标率）、35~64岁截缩率、0~74岁累积率、累积风险、变化百分比（PC）及年均变化百分比（APC）等指标。［结果］ 1972~2011年启东肝癌发病28 398例（男性21 404例，女性6 994例），占全部癌症发病的30.61%，位居癌症发病第1位。CR为63.17/10万，中标率和世标率分别为39.32/10万和50.71/10万；35~64岁截缩发病率为119.06/10万；0~74岁累积发病率为5.28%；肝癌发病的累积风险为5.15%。40年间肝癌发病的CR、中标率、世标率的变化百分比（PC）分别为40.77%、-44.35%与-37.24%，年均变化百分比（APC）分别为1.44%、-1.14%、-0.83%。各时期肝癌发病率显示45~74岁各年龄组发病率趋势稳定，75岁及以上年龄组的发病率有所上升，而35~44及以下各年龄组的发病率均有下降趋势。年龄—出生队列方法分析显示45岁以下各年龄组出生队列的发病率有明显的下降趋势。［结论］ 启东40年来肝癌粗发病率（绝对数）虽呈上升趋势，但标化率已呈明显的下降趋势；青年人中肝癌发病率的下降尤为显著。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract：［Purpose］ To investigate the incidence trends of liver cancer in Qidong from 1972 to 2011，and to provide basis for making control measures and strategies for prevention.［Methods］ Based on data of Qidong Cancer Registry，crude incidence，age-standardized incidence by Chinese standard population(ASR China) and by world standard population(ASR world)，truncated rate (35～64 age years old)，cumulative rate(0～74 age years old)，cumulative risk，percentage change (PC)，annual percentage change(APC)， incidence by period and birth-cohort were calculated.［Results］ The new liver cancer cases were 28 398 cases (male 21 404 cases，female 6994 cases) from 1972 to 2011，accounted for 30.61% of the total cancer incidence，ranked the first. The crude incidence，ASR China and ASR world was 63.17/105，39.32/105 and 50.71/105，respectively. Truncated rate (35～64 age years old)，cumulative rate(0～74 age years old) and cumulative risk were 119.06/105，5.28% and 5.15%，respectively. During the 40 years period，the PCs of crude incidence，ASR China and ASR world were 40.77%，-44.35% and -37.24%，and the APCs，1.44%，-1.14% and -0.83%，respectively. Age-specific incidence rates by period had showed stable incidence rates for those aged 45～74，the increased rates for elders over 75 years，and a drop down trend for the age groups of less than 35～44 years. Birth-cohort analysis also demonstrated remarkably declined trends in the younger cohorts less than 45 years. ［Conclusion］ The incidence rates (and the absolute numbers) of liver cancer among Qidong residents during 1972-2011 have been increased，but the age-standardized rates have been decreasing significantly，especially in the younger population. |
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