| 张建功,马 臣,姜永晓.2010～2019年河南省居民胃癌死亡率预测[J].中国肿瘤,2013,22(4):245-250. |
| 2010～2019年河南省居民胃癌死亡率预测 |
| Prediction for Mortality of Stomach Cancer in Henan Province from 2010 to 2019 |
| 投稿时间：2013-01-02 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2013.04.A201301001 |
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| 中文关键词: 胃癌 死亡率 APC模型预测 河南 |
| 英文关键词:stomach cancer mortality APC model prediction Henan |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要:［目的］ 分析河南省1985～2009年胃癌死亡率变化趋势，预测2010～2019年胃癌死亡率。［方法］ 从河南省癌症及生命统计中心数据库中抽取1985～2009年死于胃癌的全部记录，并与相应的人口数据连接。计算各时期死亡率、中国人口标化死亡率（中标率）及世界人口标化死亡率（世标率），运用Joinpoint模型估计死亡率的时间变化趋势。采用莱斯利矩阵（Leslie Matrix）分性别预测2010～2019年人口数据；运用APC（age-period-cohort）模型预测2010～2019年河南省居民胃癌死亡率。［结果］ 1985～2009年河南省死于胃癌总人数为72 238人。男性中标率由1985～1989年的40.16/10万下降至2005～2009年的23.96/10万；女性中标率由18.38/10万下降至10.91/10万。男、女性胃癌中标率均呈逐年下降趋势，男、女性模型趋势均有1个有意义的联结点。模型预测结果显示，2010～2019年河南省人口数平均增长率为4.38‰，2019年河南省15个市县总人口数将达到1 487万。2010～2014年男性中标率为23.67/10万，女性中标率为10.33/10万。2015～2019年男性中标率为21.11/10万，女性中标率为9.56/10万。［结论］ 2010～2019年河南省居民胃癌死亡率呈下降趋势，但其死亡率仍较高，应继续开展以二级预防为主的预防控制策略。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract:［Purpose］ To investigate the mortality trend of stomach cancer from 1985 to 2009 and predict its mortality（2010~2019） in Henan province.［Methods］ The data of stomach cancer death 1985 to 2009 and population from was drawn from Henan Provincial Center for Tumor and Vital Statistics Database. The mortality of periods，the age-standardized mortalities by Chinese population (1982) and by world Segi’s population were calculated. Joinpoint regression model was used to estimate the time trend of the mortality. The population data(2010～2019) of Henan province was predicted by Leslie matrix.The mortality(2010~2019) was predicted by APC regression model. ［Results］ There were 72 238 people died of stomach cancer from 1985 to 2009. The age-standardized mortality(male) by Chinese population decreased from 40.16/105 (1985~1989) to 23.96 /105 (2005~2009). The age-standardized mortality(female) decreased from 18.38/105(1985~1989) to 10.91/105(2005~2009).The mortality of stomach cancer by Chinese standardized population appeared a decreasing trend both in male and female. One significant Joinpoint appeared to exist both in male and female. Predicting model demonstrated that the average population growth rate in Henan province will be 4.38‰ during 2010~2019. The total population at 2019 will reach 14.87 million in 15 cities and counties of Henan province. The mortalities by Chinese standardized population in male and female will be 23.67/105 and 10.33/105 during 2010~2015，and those figures will be 21.11/105 and 9.56/105 respectively during 2015~2019. ［Conclusion］ A decreasing trend of mortality of stomach cancer will present during the period of 2010~2019 in Henan province，but the mortality is still high. Secondary prevention and control strategies should continue to be adopted. |
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