基于Markov模型的安徽省食管癌筛查卫生经济学评价研究
Health Economic Evaluation Study of Esophageal Cancer Screening in Anhui Province Based on a Markov Model
投稿时间:2026-06-17  修订日期:2026-07-24
DOI:
中文关键词:  食管癌  筛查策略  卫生经济学  安徽省
英文关键词:Esophageal cancer  Screening strategy  Health economics  Anhui Province
基金项目:安徽省自然科学基金面上项目(2208085MG189);安徽省城市癌症早诊早治项目卫生经济学评价
作者单位邮编
谈寅 安徽医科大学 230032
齐家乐 安徽医科大学卫生管理学院 230032
凌美怡 安徽医科大学 230032
李晨阳 安徽医科大学 230032
魏东华 中国科学技术大学附属第一医院(安徽省立医院) 230032
柴静* 安徽医科大学 230032
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中文摘要:
      目的 评估安徽省城市食管癌筛查项目的成本效果与成本效用,为该地区食管癌早筛工作常态化开展提供实证依据。方法 整合实地调研数据与已有文献资料,提取 Markov 模型所需概率、筛查成本、健康效用值等参数,其中筛查策略设定为 内镜检查,阳性者进一步接受病理活检确诊,以明确食管癌及其癌前病变的检出。模拟不同筛查策略下人群疾病的发展过程,以不筛查组为参照,采用挽救生命年(LYS)、质量调整生命年(QALY)开展经济学分析。结果 与未筛查组相比,5年1次、3年1次、2年1次和1年1次四种筛查策略所产生的ICER分别为14348元/LYS、14244元/LYS、14122元/LYS、13866元/LYS,均符合成本效果原则。结论 食管癌筛查策略具有显著的成本效果优势,可根据不同的经济条件选择不同的筛查频次。在多种筛查频次策略中,安徽省40岁开始1年1次的筛查方案为最佳策略。
英文摘要:
      Objective To evaluate the cost-effectiveness and cost-utility of urban esophageal cancer screening programs in Anhui Province, so as to provide empirical evidence for the regular implementation of early esophageal cancer screening in this region.Methods Integrating field research data with existing literature, extracting parameters such as probability, screening cost, and health utility value required for the Markov model. The screening strategy is set to endoscopic examination, and positive individuals undergo further pathological biopsy for diagnosis, in order to clarify the detection of esophageal cancer and its precancerous lesions.Taking the no-screening group as the control, economic evaluation was performed using life years saved (LYS) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs).Results Compared with the unscreened group, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) corresponding to four screening strategies (once every 5 years, once every 3 years, once every 2 years, and once annually) were 14,348 CNY per LYS, 14,244 CNY per LYS, 14,122 CNY per LYS, and 13,866 CNY per LYS respectively, all satisfying the cost-effectiveness criterion.Conclusion Esophageal cancer screening strategies demonstrate significant cost-effectiveness advantages, with varying screening frequencies adaptable to different economic conditions. Among various screening strategies, the once-a-year screening scheme starting at age 40 is the optimal strategy for Anhui Province.
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