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| 2009—2024年深圳市肺癌发病特征及2025—2030年变化趋势预测分析 |
| Incidence characteristics of lung cancer in Shenzhen from 2009 to 2024 and trend prediction from 2025 to 2030 |
| 投稿时间：2026-05-16 修订日期：2026-07-07 |
| DOI： |
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| 中文关键词: 肺癌 发病率 灰色模型 深圳 |
| 英文关键词:lung cancer incidence Grey model Shenzhen |
| 基金项目:癌症、心脑血管、呼吸和代谢性疾病防治研究国家科技重大专项项目（2024ZD0524800，2024ZD0524806）；深圳医学重点学科建设经费资助（SZ XK065） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］分析2009—2024年深圳市肺癌发病的流行趋势并预测2025—2030年的变化情况，为优化肺癌筛查策略提供依据。［方法］基于2009—2024年深圳市肿瘤登记系统报告的肺癌发病数据，使用R 4.4.2软件计算深圳市肺癌的粗发病率、中国人口标准化发病率（中标率）和世界人口标准化发病率（世标率）；使用Joinpoint回归模型计算平均年度变化百分比（average annual percent change，AAPC）及其95%置信区间（95% confidence interval，95%CI）；使用灰色预测模型GM（1,1）对2025—2030年深圳市肺癌发病率的未来变化趋势进行预测。［结果］2009—2024年深圳市共报告肺癌发病70 869例，肺癌总体粗发病率为30.49/10万，中标率和世标率分别为52.48/10万和52.11/10万。Joinpoint分析结果显示，深圳市肺癌粗发病率由2009年的11.51/10万上升至2024年的57.68/10万（AAPC=11.61%，P<0.001）、中标率和世标率分别从18.94/10万和18.48/10万升至83.53/10万和82.33/10万（AAPC=10.95%，P<0.001；AAPC=11.05%，P<0.001），其中男性粗率、中标率、世标率增幅均小于女性。肺癌发病峰值在75～79岁年龄组，发病年龄中位数前移4.02岁，不同年龄组发病率均持续升高。2009—2024年，肺腺癌世标率从4.07/10万快速上升至59.42/10万。灰色预测模型GM（1,1）结果显示，2025—2030年深圳市肺癌发病率仍将持续增长。［结论］2009—2024年深圳市肺癌发病呈上升趋势，女性发病增幅较为明显，预计2030年以前肺癌疾病负担仍将加重，应针对女性制定针对性的防控策略，关注肺腺癌发病率上升较快的现象并进一步探讨其可能原因。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract：［Purpose］ To analyze the epidemiological trends in lung cancer incidence in Shenzhen from 2009 to 2024 and to project changes from 2025 to 2030, thereby providing evidence for optimizing lung cancer screening strategies. ［Methods］ Lung cancer incidence data reported by the Shenzhen Cancer Registry System from 2009 to 2024 were used in this study. crude incidence rates, age-standardized incidence rates using the Chinese standard population (ASIRC), and age-standardized incidence rates using the world standard population (ASIRW) were calculated using R software version 4.4.2. Joinpoint regression was used to estimate the average annual percent change (AAPC) and its 95% confidence interval (95% CI). A grey prediction model GM(1,1) was applied to forecast future trends in lung cancer incidence in Shenzhen from 2025 to 2030.［Results］ From 2009 to 2024, a total of 70,869 incident lung cancer cases were reported in Shenzhen. The overall crude incidence rate was 30.49 per 100,000, while the ASIRC and ASIRW were 52.48 and 52.11 per 100,000, respectively. Joinpoint regression showed that the crude incidence rate of lung cancer increased from 11.51 per 100,000 in 2009 to 57.68 per 100,000 in 2024 (AAPC = 11.61%, P < 0.001). The ASIRC and ASIRW increased from 18.94 and 18.48 per 100,000 to 83.53 and 82.33 per 100,000, respectively (AAPC = 10.95%, P < 0.001; AAPC = 11.05%, P < 0.001). The increases in crude incidence, ASIRC, and ASIRW were all smaller in males than in females. the peak incidence occurred in the 75–79-year age group. The median age at diagnosis decreased by 4.02 years, and Increasing trends were observed across all age groups. From 2009 to 2024, the ASIRW of lung adenocarcinoma increased markedly from 4.07 per 100,000 to 59.42 per 100,000. The GM(1,1) model predicted that lung cancer incidence in Shenzhen would continue to increase from 2025 to 2030. ［Conclusion］ Lung cancer incidence in Shenzhen increased from 2009 to 2024, with a more pronounced rise among females. The lung cancer burden is expected to continue increasing before 2030. Targeted prevention and screening strategies for females should be strengthened, and the rapid increase in lung adenocarcinoma incidence warrants further attention and investigation into its potential causes. |
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