2016—2025年江苏省淮河流域癌症早诊早治项目结果及展望
Results and Prospects of the Cancer Screening Program in Huai River Areas of Jiangsu Province, 2016—2025
投稿时间:2026-05-11  修订日期:2026-07-23
DOI:
中文关键词:  淮河  上消化道癌  肝癌,早诊早治  疾病负担  卫生经济学
英文关键词:Huaihe River  Upper gastrointestinal cancer  Liver cancer  Early diagnosis and treatment  Disease burden  Health economics
基金项目:
作者单位邮编
罗鹏飞 江苏省疾病预防控制中心 210009
徐红 江苏省疾病预防控制中心 210009
李梦夏 江苏省疾病预防控制中心 210009
缪伟刚 江苏省疾病预防控制中心 210009
周金意 江苏省疾病预防控制中心 210009
韩仁强* 江苏省疾病预防控制中心 210009
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中文摘要:
      2016至2025年间,江苏省淮河流域癌症早诊早治项目累计完成临床筛查112602人次,其中初次筛查86950人次、复查24560人次。2016年和2025年上消化道癌年度筛查覆盖率分别为0.68%和0.32%,肝癌年度筛查覆盖率分别为0.30%和0.28%。整体检出率为0.81%,早诊率达72.61%,治疗率为92.63%。上消化道癌检出率(1.36%)和早诊率(73.26%)均高于肝癌(0.30%和69.89%),但肝癌治疗率(96.02%)略优于上消化道癌(91.81%),初次筛查人群各项指标在10年间波动性小于复查人群。同期,项目覆盖地区40-74岁人群上消化道癌发病率和死亡率年均分别下降5.7%和5.3%,35-74岁人群肝癌发病率和死亡率年均分别下降4.7%和4.2%,除40~44岁上消化道癌和35~39岁肝癌外,其余年龄组均有显著下降。经济性评估显示,以早期发现成本系数(EDCI)衡量,仅依靠中央财政支出时,上消化道癌和肝癌项目分别由2016年的0.64和3.36降低至2025年的0.41和2.42,提示随着人均GDP增长,项目投入的经济性进一步提升;当配套1:1的非中央财政支出时,肝癌的EDCI升至接近5(4.84),而即使当配套3:1的非中央财政支出,上消化道癌EDCI仍远小于5(1.63)。总体而言,该项目筛查指标稳定、治疗依从性高,且伴随项目地区目标癌种疾病负担的显著下降,提示长期规范的早诊早治策略在区域内具有良好的可行性和成本效果潜力,但其对全人群疾病负担变化的独立贡献尚需进一步研究。
英文摘要:
      Between 2016 and 2025, the Cancer Screening Program in Huai River Areas of Jiangsu Province conducted 112,602 clinical screenings, comprising 86,950 initial examinations and 24,560 re?examinations. The annual screening coverage for upper gastrointestinal cancer (UGC) was 0.68% in 2016 and 0.32% in 2025, while that for liver cancer (LC) was 0.30% and 0.28%, respectively. Overall, the program achieved a detection rate of 0.81%, an early diagnosis rate of 72.61%, and a treatment rate of 92.63%. UGC exhibited higher detection (1.36%) and early diagnosis rates (73.26%) than LC (0.30% and 69.89%, respectively), whereas LC had a marginally higher treatment rate (96.02%) than UGC (91.81%). Over the decade, performance indicators among initial screening participants were more stable than those among re?examination participants. During the same period, the incidence and mortality of UGC in the population aged 40–74 years in the project areas declined by an average of 5.7% and 5.3% per year, respectively; for LC in those aged 35–74 years, the corresponding annual reductions were 4.7% and 4.2%. Significant decreases were observed in all age groups except for UGC at 40–44 years and LC at 35–39 years. Economic evaluation using the early detection cost index (EDCI) showed that, under central government funding alone, the EDCI for UGC and LC fell from 0.64 and 3.36 in 2016 to 0.41 and 2.42 in 2025, respectively, suggesting improved cost?effectiveness alongside economic growth. When non?central government funds matched central funds at a 1:1 ratio, the EDCI for LC approached 5 (4.84); even with a 3:1 match, the EDCI for UGC remained well below 5 (1.63). Overall, the program demonstrated stable screening performance, high treatment adherence, and a concurrent significant decline in target cancer burden in the project areas, indicating that long?term, systematic early diagnosis and treatment strategies are feasible and potentially cost?effective in this region. Nevertheless, its independent contribution to the overall population disease burden warrants further investigation.
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