2014-2023年河南省居民恶性肿瘤死亡流行趋势及疾病负担分析
Analysis of Mortality Trends and Disease Burden of Malignant Tumors Among Residents in Henan Province from 2014 to 2023
投稿时间:2026-02-13  修订日期:2026-04-02
DOI:
中文关键词:  恶性肿瘤  死亡趋势  疾病负担
英文关键词:Malignant tumor  Death trend  Disease burden
基金项目:河南省医学科技攻关项目(LHGJ20250139、LHGJ20250117)
作者单位邮编
李少芳 河南省疾病预防控制中心 450016
郭兰伟 郑州大学附属肿瘤医院/河南省肿瘤医院临床研究管理部 450016
邢天放 河南省疾病预防控制中心 450016
王炳源 河南省疾病预防控制中心 450016
秦露伟 河南省疾病预防控制中心 450016
潘盼 河南省疾病预防控制中心 450016
底秀娟 河南省疾病预防控制中心 450016
杨文杰* 河南省疾病预防控制中心 450016
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中文摘要:
      目的 分析2014-2023年河南省居民恶性肿瘤死亡流行趋势及造成的疾病负担情况,为制定恶性肿瘤防控政策提供依据。方法 利用中国疾病预防控制中心《人口死亡信息登记管理系统》中2014-2023年河南省国家级死因监测点报告的恶性肿瘤死亡数据,运用Excel 2016、SPSS 21.0、Joinpoint 4.9.0软件对死亡资料进行分析,计算粗死亡率、年龄标化死亡率、平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)、潜在减寿年数(PYLL)、潜在减寿率(PYLLR)等指标。采用?2检验进行死亡率比较,采用Joinpoint回归模型描述指标的时间变化趋势。结果 2014-2023年,河南省居民恶性肿瘤粗死亡率为132.97/10万,标化死亡率为122.23/10万,男性恶性肿瘤死亡率均高于女性,差异具有统计学意义(均P<0.05)。时间趋势分析显示,河南省居民恶性肿瘤死亡率在2020年出现拐点:2014-2020年期间,死亡率呈显著上升趋势(P<0.05);2020-2023年期间,死亡率呈波动下降态势,但变化趋势无统计学意义(P>0.05)。2014-2023年河南省居民恶性肿瘤死因顺位前7位依次为肺癌、肝癌、胃癌、食管癌、结直肠癌、胰腺癌、乳腺癌,除乳腺癌外,其余6类恶性肿瘤死亡率均表现为男性高于女性。不同恶性肿瘤死亡率的时间变化趋势存在差异:结直肠癌、胰腺癌及乳腺癌的死亡率在2014-2023年间呈显著上升趋势(均P<0.05);而肝癌、食管癌的死亡率则呈显著下降趋势(均P<0.05)。疾病负担分析结果显示,2014-2023年河南省居民因恶性肿瘤导致的潜在寿命损失年数(PYLL)累计达3 298 370.50人年,其中男性为2 108 170人年,女性为1 190 200.50人年;全人群潜在减寿率(PYLLR)为13.23‰,男性PYLLR为16.44‰,女性PYLLR为9.83‰。结论 2014-2023年,河南省居民恶性肿瘤整体死亡率呈现波动变化趋势,但该病造成的疾病负担仍处于较高水平。肺癌、肝癌、胃癌、食管癌、结直肠癌、胰腺癌是河南省居民恶性肿瘤死亡的主要病种,且男性为恶性肿瘤防控的重点人群,建议进一步加强重点恶性肿瘤及重点人群的筛查干预与综合防治工作,以期降低恶性肿瘤死亡率,减轻其所致的疾病负担。
英文摘要:
      Objective To nalyze the epidemiological trends and disease burden of malignant tumors among residents in Henan Province from 2014 to 2023, providing a basis for formulating malignant tumors prevention and control policies. Methods Using the malignant tumors death data reported by the national mortality monitoring points in Henan Province from 2014 to 2023 in the "Population Death Information Registration and Management System" of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Excel 2016, SPSS21.0, Joinpoint 4.9.0 software, and death data were analyzed to calculate crude mortality rate, standardized mortality rate, average annual percentage change (AAPC), potential years of life lost (PYLL), potential life loss rate (PYLLR), and other indicators. Chi-square test was used for mortality comparison, and the time trend of the indicators was described using a Joinpoint regression model. Results From 2014 to 2023, the crude mortality rate of malignant tumors among residents in Henan Province was 132.97/100 000, and the standardized mortality rate was 122.23/100 000. The mortality rate of malignant tumors in males was higher than that in females, and the difference was statistically significant (all P<0.05).The time trend analysis showed that the mortality rate of malignant tumors among residents in Henan Province had an inflection point in 2020: from 2014 to 2020, the mortality rate showed a significant upward trend (P<0.05); During 2020-2023, the mortality rate showed a fluctuating downward trend, but the change trend was not statistically significant (P>0.05). From 2014 to 2023, the top seven causes of malignant tumors among residents in Henan Province were lung cancer, liver cancer, gastric cancer, esophageal cancer, colorectal cancer, pancreatic cancer, and breast cancer.Except for breast cancer, the mortality rates of the other six types of malignant tumors were higher in men than in women. The time variation trend of mortality of different malignancies was different:the mortality of colorectal cancer, pancreatic cancer and breast cancer showed a significant upward trend from 2014 to 2023 (all P<0.05); The mortality of liver cancer and esophageal cancer showed a significant downward trend (all P<0.05). The analysis of disease burden shows that from 2014 to 2023, the potential years of life lost (PYLL) caused by malignant tumors among residents in Henan Province reached 3 298 370.50 person years, with 2 108 170 person years for males and 1 190 200.50 person years for females; The potential life loss rate (PYLLR) of the whole population was 13.23 ‰, 16.44 ‰ in males and 9.83 ‰ in females. Conclusion From 2014 to 2023, the overall mortality rate of malignant tumors among residents in Henan Province showed a fluctuating trend, but the disease burden caused by the disease was still at a relatively high level. Lung cancer, liver cancer, gastric cancer, esophageal cancer, colorectal cancer, and pancreatic cancer are the main types of malignant tumor death among residents in Henan Province, and men are the key population of malignant tumor prevention and control. It is suggested to further strengthen the screening, intervention, and comprehensive prevention and treatment of key malignant tumors and key populations, in order to reduce the mortality rate of malignant tumors and reduce the burden of diseases caused by them.
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