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| 2018—2022年广西南宁市全人群恶性肿瘤死亡率变化趋势及疾病负担分析 |
| Analysis on the trend of cancer mortality and disease burden in Nanning, Guangxi from 2018 to 2022 |
| 投稿时间：2026-02-10 修订日期：2026-04-22 |
| DOI： |
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| 中文关键词: 恶性肿瘤 死亡率 变化趋势 疾病负担 |
| 英文关键词:malignant tumors mortality rate trends disease burden |
| 基金项目:广西壮族自治区卫生健康委员会自筹经费科研课题—南宁市肿瘤登记地区恶性肿瘤发病和死亡的时空规律 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| [目的]分析2018—2022年南宁市全人群恶性肿瘤死亡率的变化趋势及疾病负担，为南宁市恶性肿瘤防控政策提供科学依据。[方法]收集2018—2022年南宁市常住人口恶性肿瘤死亡病例资料，计算粗死亡率、中国人口年龄标准化死亡率（简称中标死亡率）、潜在减寿年数(PYLL)、潜在减寿率(PYLLR)和平均减寿年数(AYLL)等指标，并应用Joinpoint回归模型对恶性肿瘤粗死亡率和中标死亡率的变化趋势进行分析。[结果]2018—2022年南宁市共报告全人群恶性肿瘤死亡病例53242例，粗死亡率为135.37/10万，中标死亡率为126.41/10万，男性粗死亡率和中标死亡率均高于女性，农村地区粗死亡率和中标死亡率均高于城市地区。2018—2022年南宁市全人群中标死亡率呈现逐年下降趋势(AAPC=-5.76%,t=-4.06,P=0.027)，城市地区中标死亡率呈逐年下降趋势(AAPC=-8.05%,t=-3.59,P=0.037)，农村地区粗死亡率呈逐年上升趋势(AAPC=2.50%,t=6.41,P=0.008)。2018—2022年南宁市全人群恶性肿瘤死亡率随年龄增长而升高，全人群及男性15~44岁、45~64岁年龄组死亡率呈逐年显著下降趋势，城市地区15~44岁、≥65岁年龄组死亡率亦呈逐年显著下降趋势，女性及农村地区各年龄段死亡率变化平稳。全人群恶性肿瘤死因顺位前五位分别为肝癌、肺癌、结直肠癌、胃癌及乳腺癌，其中肝癌(AAPC=-7.84%,t=-5.18,P=0.014)、胃癌(AAPC=-8.74%,t=-13.86,P=0.001)中标死亡率呈逐年下降趋势。2018—2022年南宁市全人群前五位恶性肿瘤PYLL为574174.68人年，PLYYR为15.61‰，AYLL为15.08年。[结论]2018—2022年南宁市全人群恶性肿瘤死亡呈下降趋势，但农村地区和45岁及以上人群恶性肿瘤疾病负担仍较重，应对不同癌种和不同人群采取针对的癌症防治措施。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract：［Purpose］To analyze trends in mortality and disease burden of malignant tumors in the general population of Nanning from 2018 to 2022, and to provide scientific evidence for the formulation of local cancer prevention and control strategies. ［Methods］Mortality data of malignant tumors among the permanent residents of Nanning from 2018 to 2022 were collected. Crude mortality rate, age-standardized mortality rate based on the Chinese standard population (ASMR), potential years of life lost (PYLL), potential years of life lost rate (PYLLR), and average years of life lost (AYLL) were calculated. Joinpoint regression analysis was applied to evaluate trends in crude mortality rate and ASMR of malignant tumors.［Results］From 2018 to 2022, a total of 53242 deaths from malignant tumors were reported in the general population of Nanning. The crude mortality rate was 135.37/105, and the age-standardized mortality rate based on the Chinese standard population (ASMR) was 126.41/105. Both crude mortality rate and ASMR were higher in males than in females, and higher in rural areas than in urban areas.The ASMR in the general population showed a significant downward trend (AAPC=-5.76%,t=-4.06,P=0.027), and a similar decreasing trend was observed in urban areas (AAPC=?8.05%, t=?3.59, P=0.037), whereas the crude mortality rate in rural areas showed an increasing trend (AAPC=2.50%, t=6.41, P=0.008).Mortality rates increased with age. Significant decreasing trends were observed in the 15~44 and 45~64 age groups in the general population and in males, as well as in the 15~44 and ≥65 age groups in urban areas, while mortality rates remained relatively stable among females and in rural populations. The top five causes of death from malignant tumors were liver cancer, lung cancer, colorectal cancer, gastric cancer, and breast cancer. The ASMR of liver cancer (AAPC=-7.84%,t=-5.18,P=0.014) and gastric cancer (AAPC=-8.74%,t=-13.86,P=0.001) showed significant downward trends. From 2018 to 2022, the total PYLL of the top five malignant tumors was 574174.68 person-years, with a PYLLR of 15.61‰ and an AYLL of 15.08 years.［Conclusion］From 2018 to 2022, mortality from malignant tumors in the general population of Nanning showed an overall downward trend. However, the disease burden remained relatively high in rural areas and among populations aged 45 years and above. Targeted cancer prevention and control measures should be implemented for different cancer types and population groups. |
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