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| 2021年苏州市居民恶性肿瘤死亡状况及1987—2021年变化趋势分析 |
| Cancer Mortality Among Suzhou Residents in 2021 and Trends From 1987 to 2021 |
| 投稿时间：2026-02-06 修订日期：2026-04-01 |
| DOI： |
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| 中文关键词: 恶性肿瘤 死亡率 趋势分析 预测 |
| 英文关键词:cancer mortality rate trend analysis prediction |
| 基金项目:江苏省老年健康科研项目；苏州市重大疾病、传染病预防和控制关键技术（研究）项目 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| [目的]分析2021年苏州市居民恶性肿瘤死亡情况以及1987—2021年变化趋势，并进行预测分析。[方法]收集1987—2021年苏州市恶性肿瘤死亡资料，计算2021年恶性肿瘤粗死亡率、中标死亡率、0~74岁累计死亡率、年龄别死亡率以及前10位恶性肿瘤死亡顺位等指标。运用Joinpoint模型计算年度变化百分比（annual percentage change, APC）及平均年度变化百分比（average annual percentage change, AAPC），分析1987—2021年苏州市恶性肿瘤死亡趋势。采用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型进行预测分析，用DAS GUPTA因素分解分析法对死亡变化的影响因素进行分解分析。[结果]2021年苏州市恶性肿瘤粗死亡率为194.88/10万，中标死亡率为77.70/10万，0~74岁累计死亡率为8.03%。恶性肿瘤年龄别死亡率在55岁以前处于较低水平，随着年龄增长，死亡率呈现上升趋势。肺癌、胃癌、结直肠癌、肝癌以及胰腺癌是2021年主要死亡癌种。恶性肿瘤粗死亡率在1987—2021年呈上升趋势（AAPC=0.66%，P<0.001）、中标死亡率呈下降趋势（AAPC=1.74%，P<0.001），预计到2030年粗死亡率将下降至179.86/10万、中标死亡率下降至55.47/10万。年龄别死亡率变化、人口老龄化和人口自然增长分别占1987—2021年恶性肿瘤死亡数变化因素的-99.48%、138.71%和64.29%。[结论] 苏州市居民恶性肿瘤中标死亡率呈下降趋势，但粗死亡率呈上升趋势，疾病负担仍较重，应重点防控肺癌和消化系统恶性肿瘤，密切关注老年人群。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| [Purpose] To analyze the mortality of cancer among residents in Suzhou in 2021 and the changing trends from 1987 to 2021, and conduct a predictive analysis. [Methods] Death data on malignant tumors in Suzhou from 1987 to 2021 were collected. The crude mortality rate, age-standardized mortality rate by Chinese standard population (ASMRC), cumulative mortality rate from 0 to 74 years, age-specific mortality rates, and the ranking of the top 10 malignant tumors by number of deaths in 2021 were calculated. The Joinpoint model was used to calculate the annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC), and analyze the death trend of malignant tumors in Suzhou from 1987 to 2021. The Bayesian age - period – cohort (BAPC) model was employed for predictive analysis, and the DAS GUPTA factor decomposition analysis method was used to conduct a decomposition analysis of the influencing factors of the death change. [Results] In Suzhou in 2021, the crude mortality rate of malignant tumors was 194.88/105, the ASMRC was 77.70/105, and the cumulative mortality rate from ages 0 to 74 was 8.03%. The age - specific mortality rate of malignant tumors remained at a relatively low level before the age of 55 and showed an upward trend with increasing age. Lung cancer, gastric cancer, colorectal cancer, liver cancer, and pancreatic cancer were the main cancer types causing death in 2021. The crude mortality rate of malignant tumors showed an upward trend from 1987 to 2021 (AAPC=0.66%, P<0.001), while the ASMRC showed a downward trend (AAPC=1.74%, P<0.001). It is estimated that by 2030, the crude mortality rate will decline to 179.86/105, and the ASMRC will decline to 55.47/105.Variations in age-specific mortality rates, population aging, and natural population growth accounted for -99.48%, 138.71%, and 64.29% of the changes in cancer mortality, respectively, from 1987 to 2021. [Conclusion] The ASMRC of cancer among residents in Suzhou shows a downward trend, but the crude mortality rate is on the rise. The disease burden remains relatively heavy. Priority should be given to the prevention and control of lung cancer and malignant tumors of the digestive system, and close attention should be paid to the elderly population. |
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