| [Objective] To analyze the epidemic characteristics of gallbladder cancer in Gansu Province in 2021, examine the trends in incidence and mortality from 2010 to 2021, and predict the disease incidence from 2022 to 2030, thereby providing evidence for formulating targeted prevention and control strategies.[Methods] Based on gallbladder cancer incidence data and demographic information from the Gansu Provincial Cancer Registry (2010–2021), we stratified the data by age, sex, and urban/rural residence. We calculated the crude incidence and mortality rates, age-standardized incidence and mortality rates using the Chinese standard population (ASIRC and ASMRC), cumulative incidence (0–74 years), and world age-standardized rates. Trends were analyzed using the Joinpoint regression model to estimate the annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs). A Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was applied to predict incidence and mortality rates for 2022–2030.[Results]In 2021, the ASIRC for gallbladder cancer in Gansu Province was 3.02 per 100,000, with higher rates in females (3.19 per 100,000) than males (2.85 per 100,000), and in rural (3.06 per 100,000) than urban areas (2.93 per 100,000). The ASMRC was 1.67 per 100,000, with higher rates in females (1.83 per 100,000) than males (1.50 per 100,000), and in urban (1.82 per 100,000) than rural areas (1.57 per 100,000). Both incidence and mortality increased with age, peaking in the ≥80 age group (29.85 and 25.66 per 100,000, respectively). From 2010 to 2021, the crude incidence rate increased from 3.64 to 4.99 per 100,000 (AAPC = 4.51%), and the crude mortality rate increased from 1.98 to 2.92 per 100,000 (AAPC = 1.85%). However, after age standardization, the trends in incidence and mortality were not statistically significant. Predictions indicate that the ASIRC for gallbladder cancer in Gansu will show an upward trend from 2022 to 2030, reaching 4.32 per 100,000 by 2030, a 43.04% increase from 2021. In contrast, the ASMRC is projected to decline.[Conclusion] The disease burden of gallbladder cancer in Gansu Province is expected to intensify in the coming years, primarily driven by population aging. Elevated disease risks are notable in rural areas, among males, and in older age groups. Implementing precise, stratified prevention and control strategies is imperative. This includes strengthening health interventions in rural regions, enhancing screening in high-risk populations, and promoting standardized diagnosis and treatment to curb the growing disease burden. |
