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| 2010—2022年甘肃省武威市胰腺癌发病与死亡趋势分析及2023—2030年变化趋势预测 |
| Trend Analysis and Projection of Pancreatic Cancer Incidence and mortality in Wuwei City, Gansu Province, 2010–2022 and 2023–2030 |
| 投稿时间：2026-01-12 修订日期：2026-03-03 |
| DOI： |
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| 中文关键词: 胰腺癌 趋势分析 发病率 预测 武威市 |
| 英文关键词:Pancreatic cancer Trend analysis Incidence Projection Wuwei City |
| 基金项目:甘肃中医药大学研究生创新创业基金（项目编号：2026CXCY-168） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| [目的] 分析甘肃省武威市2010—2022年胰腺癌发病与死亡趋势，并预测2023—2030年变化趋势。[方法] 利用武威市肿瘤登记资料，采用Joinpoint 5.4.0软件计算粗率、标准化率等主要构成指标的平均年度变化百分比（Average annual percentage change, AAPC）及其95%置信区间。一般线性回归模型分析平均发病和死亡年龄变化趋势，贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型（Bayesian age-period-cohort, BAPC）预测2023—2030年标准化发病及死亡率。[结果] 2010—2022年，粗发病率由2.17升至5.71/10万（AAPC=10.01%，P＜0.05），粗死亡率由0.99升至4.15/10万（AAPC=11.16%，P＜0.05）。平均发病年龄由60.91岁上升至66.94岁（P＜0.05）；平均死亡年龄总体变化不明显，但女性呈显著上升趋势（β=0.64）。60岁以上人群发病构成由59.09%上升至77.42%，死亡构成年均下降2.09%，变化趋势无统计学意义。BAPC预测显示，2023—2030年武威市胰腺癌年龄标准化发病率和死亡率仍上升，男性高于女性。[结论] 2010—2022年武威市胰腺癌发病率持续上升，发病和死亡向高龄人群集中，未来疾病负担仍将加重。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| [Objective] To analyze the incidence and mortality trends of pancreatic cancer in Wuwei City, Gansu Province from 2010 to 2022, and to predict their changes from 2023 to 2030. [Methods] Data were obtained from the Wuwei Cancer Registry. Joinpoint 5.4.0 software was used to calculate crude and standardized rates and their average annual percentage change (AAPC) with 95% confidence intervals. Linear regression was applied to examine trends in mean age at diagnosis and death, and the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to predict standardized incidence and mortality rates for 2023–2030. [Results] From 2010 to 2022, the crude incidence rate increased from 2.17 to 5.71 per 100,000 (AAPC=10.01%, P<0.05), and the crude mortality rate increased from 0.99 to 4.15 per 100,000 (AAPC=11.16%, P<0.05). The mean age at diagnosis rose from 60.91 to 66.94 years (P<0.05), while the mean age at death showed no overall change, though a significant upward trend was observed in females (β=0.64). The proportion of cases in individuals aged ≥60 years increased from 59.09% to 77.42%, whereas the proportion of deaths in this age group decreased by an average of 2.09% per year, without statistical significance. BAPC predictions indicate that age-standardized incidence and mortality rates will continue to rise from 2023 to 2030, with males consistently higher than females. [Conclusion] The incidence of pancreatic cancer in Wuwei City has steadily increased from 2010 to 2022, with both incidence and mortality increasingly concentrated in older populations, suggesting a further rise in disease burden in the future. |
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