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| 2022年甘肃省武威市肺癌流行特征及2010—2022年变化趋势分析和预测 |
| Epidemiological Characteristics of Lung Cancer in Wuwei City, Gansu Province in 2022, Analysis of Trends from 2010 to 2022 and Projections |
| 投稿时间：2026-01-07 修订日期：2026-02-28 |
| DOI： |
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| 中文关键词: 肺癌 发病率 死亡率 趋势 预测 甘肃 |
| 英文关键词:Lung cancer Incidence Mortality Trend Prediction Gansu |
| 基金项目:甘肃省科技计划联合科研基金项目（25JRRH009），甘肃省教育厅优秀研究生“创新之星”项目（2026CXZX-937） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| [目的]分析甘肃省武威市2022年肺癌的发病与死亡现状，阐明2010—2022年的流行趋势，并预测2023—2035年的发病与死亡趋势。[方法]基于甘肃省武威市2010—2022年肿瘤登记数据，使用SAS 9.4和Excel 2021计算2022年发病与死亡粗率、标化率、累计率等；使用Joinpoint 5.2.0对2010—2022年肺癌的变化趋势进行分析；使用R 4.5.1构建BAPC预测模型，预测2023—2035年肺癌的变化情况。[结果]2022年武威市肺癌粗发病率和中标发病率为30.82/10万和17.31/10万。肺癌粗死亡率和中标死亡率为26.88/10万和14.62/10万。2010—2022年粗发病率（AAPC=2.91%, P＜0.001）呈上升趋势，中标发病率（AAPC=-1.30%, P=0.005）呈下降趋势。粗死亡率（AAPC=6.25%, P=0.001）呈快速上升趋势，中标死亡率（AAPC=-1.64%, P=0.505)呈下降趋势。预测2023—2035年肺癌总体中标发病率和死亡率将持续下降，发病率和死亡率预计分别下降到12.75/10万和6.79/10万。[结论]甘肃省武威市肺癌发病死亡率处于全国较低水平，2010—2022年中标发病和死亡率均呈下降趋势，预测未来肺癌发病死亡率将继续呈下降趋势。建议将男性和农村地区人群作为重点防控对象，强化烟草管控和清洁能源推广力度，引导高危群体定期进行低剂量螺旋CT检查，开展癌症防治知识普及，以巩固肺癌防治效果，并进一步完善各个地区肿瘤登记随访工作。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| [Objective] This study analyzes the incidence and mortality of lung cancer in Wuwei City, Gansu Province, in 2022, elucidates the epidemiological trends from 2010 to 2022, and forecasts the incidence and mortality trends from 2023 to 2035. [Methods] Based on tumor registration data from Wuwei City, Gansu Province, from 2010 to 2022, the crude incidence and mortality rates, standardized rates, and cumulative rates for 2022 were calculated using SAS 9.4 and Excel 2021. The Joinpoint 5.2.0 software was utilized to analyze the trend changes in lung cancer from 2010 to 2022. Additionally, the BAPC prediction model was constructed using R 4.5.1 to forecast lung cancer trends from 2023 to 2035. [Results] In 2022, the crude incidence rate of lung cancer in Wuwei City was 30.82 per 100,000, the age-standardized incidence rate by Chinese standard population (ASIRC) was 17.31 per 100,000, and the age-standardized incidence rate by world standard population (ASIRW) was 19.16 per 100,000. Meanwhile, the crude mortality rate of lung cancer, the age-standardized mortality rate by Chinese standard population (ASMRC), and the age-standardized mortality rate by world standard population (ASMRW) were 26.88 per 100,000, 14.62 per 100,000, and 16.66 per 100,000, respectively.Incidence and mortality rates were primarily concentrated in the age group over 65 years. From 2010 to 2022, the age-adjusted annual percentage change (AAPC) in the ASIRC and the ASIRW were -1.30% (t = -3.50, P = 0.01) This study analyzes the incidence and mortality of lung cancer in Wuwei City, Gansu Province, in 2022, elucidates the epidemiological trends from 2010 to 2022, and forecasts the incidence and mortality trends from 2023 to 2035. [Methods] Based on tumor registration data from Wuwei City, Gansu Province, from 2010 to 2022, the crude incidence and mortality rates, standardized rates, and cumulative rates for 2022 were calculated using SAS 9.4 and Excel 2021. The Joinpoint 5.2.0 software was utilized to analyze the trend changes in lung cancer from 2010 to 2022. Additionally, the BAPC prediction model was constructed using R 4.5.1 to forecast lung cancer trends from 2023 to 2035. [Results] In 2022, the crude incidence rate of lung cancer in Wuwei City was 30.82 per 100,000, the age-standardized incidence rate by Chinese standard population (ASIRC) was 17.31 per 100,000. Meanwhile, the crude mortality rate of lung cancer and the age-standardized mortality rate by Chinese standard population (ASMRC) were 26.88 per 100,000 and 14.62 per 100,000. From 2010 to 2022, the crude incidence rate of lung cancer exhibited an upward trend (AAPC=2.91%, P<0.001), while the ASIRC showed a downward trend (AAPC=-1.30%, P=0.005). The crude mortality rate increased rapidly (AAPC=6.25%, P=0.001), whereas the ASMRC decreased (AAPC=-1.64%, P=0.505). It is predicted that from 2023 to 2035, the overall age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of lung cancer will continue to decline, with expected rates of 12.75 per 100,000 and 6.79 per 100,000. [Conclusion] The lung cancer incidence and mortality rates in Wuwei City, Gansu Province, are among the lowest in the country. Both age-standardized incidence and mortality rates have shown a downward trend from 2010 to 2022, and it is anticipated that this downward trend will persist in the future. It is recommended to focus on male and rural populations as key targets for prevention and control, strengthen tobacco control measures, promote clean energy usage, guide high-risk groups to undergo regular low-dose spiral CT examinations, and conduct cancer prevention and treatment knowledge dissemination to consolidate the effectiveness of lung cancer prevention and control, as well as to further improve tumor registration and follow-up work in various regions. |
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