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| 2014—2023年山东省济宁市泌尿系统常见恶性肿瘤发病和死亡趋势及生存分析 |
| Trends in Incidence and Mortality and Survival Analysis of Common Urological Malignancies in Jining City, Shandong Province, 2014—2023 |
| 投稿时间：2025-12-25 修订日期：2026-03-19 |
| DOI： |
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| 中文关键词: 肾癌 膀胱癌 发病率 死亡率 趋势 生存分析 |
| 英文关键词:Kidney cancer Bladder cancer Incidence Mortality Trend Survival Analysis |
| 基金项目:中华预防医学会老年健康体检队列和重大慢病专病数据库建设与应用研究项目（JKCLPJ202502002） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘要:目的 肾癌和膀胱癌作为泌尿系统常见的恶性肿瘤，其全球发病与死亡负担持续加重，严重威胁人群健康。本研究主要通过分析山东省济宁市2014—2023年泌尿系统常见恶性肿瘤（肾癌和膀胱癌）发病、死亡变化趋势及其不同诊断时期患者生存状况，为制定相应的防控策略提供参考。方法 数据来源于山东省肿瘤登记报告系统，提取济宁市2014—2023年肾癌和膀胱癌发病和死亡数据。应用SAS 9.4软件计算其粗发病和死亡率、标化发病和死亡率。应用Joinpoint线性回归模型分析2014—2023年肾癌和膀胱癌发病率和死亡率的平均年度变化百分比（AAPC）及95%置信区间（95%CI）。通过队列法和现时生存法分别分析并比较不同诊断时期（2014—2018年vs 2019—2023年）的5年相对生存率。结果 2014—2023年山东省济宁市肾癌粗发病率与中标发病率均呈显著上升趋势，AAPC分别为10.1%和7.0%（P均<0.001）；膀胱癌粗发病率同样显著上升（AAPC=6.9%，P<0.001），中标发病率增幅较小（AAPC=2.8%，P=0.035）。死亡率方面，肾癌与膀胱癌的粗死亡率均显著上升（AAPC分别为8.7%和7.3%），但经年龄标化后，两者的中标死亡率趋势稳定（P>0.05）。与此同时，两种癌症的患者生存状况均得到明显改善，肾癌患者5年相对生存率从2014—2018年的69.63%提升至2019—2023年的73.66%，膀胱癌患者5年相对生存率则从66.44%显著提升至75.28%；两种癌症患者的预后均随年龄增长而下降，且随诊断后时间推移而逐渐降低。结论 2014—2023年济宁市泌尿系统常见恶性肿瘤（肾癌与膀胱癌）发病率持续上升，但经年龄标化后死亡风险趋于稳定，同时两种癌症的5年相对生存率均得到显著改善。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Trends in Incidence and Mortality and Survival Analysis of Common Urological Malignancies in Jining City, Shandong Province, 2014—2023
DUAN Wenhua1, WANG Mei1, LI Gui2, FENG Zhihui2, LIANG Yumin1
(1.?Jining Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jining 272000, China; 2.?School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China)
Abstract：Objective As common malignant tumors of the urinary system, the incidence of kidney and bladder cancers has been increasing in recent years, posing a serious threat to population health. This study aimed to analyze the trends in incidence and mortality of common urological malignancies (kidney and bladder cancers) in Jining City, Shandong Province, from 2014 to 2023, and to assess the survival status of patients across different diagnostic periods, thereby providing evidence for formulating corresponding prevention and control strategies. Methods Data on the incidence and mortality of kidney and bladder cancers in Jining City from 2014 to 2023 were extracted from the Shandong Cancer Registration and Reporting System. SAS 9.4 software was used to calculate crude and age-standardized incidence and mortality rates. The Joinpoint regression model was applied to analyze the average annual percentage change (AAPC) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for incidence and mortality rates from 2014 to 2023. The cohort period method and period analysis method were used to calculate and compare the 5-year relative survival rates for different diagnostic periods (2014—2018 vs. 2019—2023). Results From 2014 to 2023 the incidence trends for kidney and bladder cancers in Jining City of Shandong Province, were as follows: both the crude incidence rate (AAPC=10.1%) and age-standardized incidence rate (AAPC=7.0%) of kidney cancer showed a significant increasing trend (P<0.001 for both). The crude incidence rate of bladder cancer also increased significantly (AAPC=6.9%, P<0.001), while the increase in its age-standardized incidence rate was smaller (AAPC=2.8%, P=0.035). Regarding mortality, the crude mortality rates for both kidney cancer (AAPC=8.7%) and bladder cancer (AAPC=7.3%) increased significantly. However, after age standardization, the age-standardized mortality rates for both cancers did not show a significant upward trend. Meanwhile, the survival status of patients with both cancers improved markedly. The 5-year relative survival rate for kidney cancer patients increased from 69.63% in 2014—2018 to 73.66% in 2019—2023. The 5-year relative survival rate for bladder cancer patients significantly increased from 66.44% to 75.28%. For both cancers, patient prognosis decreased with advancing age and gradually declined over time following diagnosis. Conclusion From 2014 to 2023,?the incidence rates of common urological cancers (kidney and bladder cancers) in Jining City continued to rise, while the age-standardized mortality rates remained stable. Meanwhile, the 5-year relative survival rates for both cancers improved significantly. |
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