| [Abstract] Objective To estimate the lifetime risk of cervical cancer across 185 countries worldwide using the adjusted for multiple primaries (AMP) method, providing scientific evidence for global cervical cancer prevention and control trategies. Methods Age-specific cervical cancer incidence data from 185 countries were extracted from the GLOBOCAN 2022 database and combined with population and all-cause mortality data from the United Nations. The AMP method was applied to calculate lifetime risk. Stratified analyses were conducted by Human Development Index (HDI) category and 20 geographic regions. Risks from different starting ages (birth, 40, 50, 60, and 70 years) and the proportion of risk after age 60 relative to lifetime risk were calculated. Pearson correlation coefficient was used to assess the association between lifetime risk and HDI. Results The global lifetime risk of cervical cancer in 2022 was 1.53% (95%CI: 1.52%-1.53%), ranging from 0.19% to 7.59% across countries. By HDI stratification, medium HDI countries had the highest risk (2.09%), followed by low HDI (1.82%), high HDI (1.64%), and very high HDI countries (0.98%). Geographic analysis revealed that Eastern Africa had the highest risk (3.94%), while Western Asia had the lowest (0.51%). Lifetime risk decreased with age, from 1.53% at birth to 0.38% from age 70. Globally, the risk after age 60 accounted for 46.41% of the lifetime risk, with this proportion being highest in medium HDI regions (54.07%) and lowest in very high HDI regions (37.76%); among geographic regions, Northern Africa had the highest proportion (65.48%) and Northern Europe the lowest (32.53%). Lifetime risk was negatively correlated with HDI across 175 countries (r = -0.46, P<0.05), with the fitted curve showing an inverted U-shaped distribution. In countries with life expectancy <75 years, lifetime risk was slightly lower than or close to cumulative risk, whereas in countries with life expectancy ≥75 years, lifetime risk generally exceeded cumulative risk. Conclusion Significant regional and developmental disparities exist in the global lifetime risk of cervical cancer, with medium HDI countries facing a higher disease burden. Regional variations in the proportion of risk after age 60 suggest the need for differentiated screening strategies tailored to regions at different development levels, with particular attention to cervical cancer prevention and control among middle-aged and older women. |
