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| 基于GBD 2023分析的中国老年人群气管、支气管和肺癌疾病负担及风险因素分析 |
| Analysis of the disease burden and risk factors of trachea, bronchi and lung cancer in the elderly population of China based on GBD 2023 |
| 投稿时间：2025-12-08 修订日期：2026-02-09 |
| DOI： |
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| 中文关键词: 气管、支气管和肺癌 疾病负担 风险因素 老年人群 |
| 英文关键词:Trachea,bronchus and lung cancer Global disease burden Risk factors Elderly people |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（面上项目，重点项目，重大项目） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的 分析1990—2023年中国老年人群气管、支气管和肺癌（Tracheal，Bronchus，and Lung Cancer，TBL）的发病和死亡负担及其风险因素，为公共卫生政策制定提供一定参考。方法 基于GBD 2023数据库，参考中国第七次人口普查的标准人口构成，对60岁及以上老年人群TBL群体的年龄标准化发病率和死亡率进行估算，利用Joinpoint回归分析时间变化趋势。对性别和年龄分组分析发病和死亡数占比，采用分解分析探讨老龄化、人口增长及流行病学变化对疾病负担的影响，结合伤残调整寿命年(Disability Adjusted Life Years，DALYs)分析风险因素。结果 与1990年相比，中国老年人群总体和女性年龄标准化发病率(age-standardized incidence rate，ASIR)有所增长，平均每年分别增加0.42%和0.3%；中国男性年龄标准化死亡率（age-standardized mortality rate，ASMR）呈下降趋势，平均每年下降0.23%（P<0.05）。男性和女性的发病和死亡主要集中在70~74岁之间，人口增长是中国老年TBL发病数和死亡数增加的主要影响因素。2023年对疾病负担影响最大的风险因素依次为：吸烟、颗粒物污染、二手烟、职业风险、空腹血糖高、水果摄入不足和住宅氡。结论 1990—2023中国老年人群TBL疾病负担依然严重，吸烟是最主要的风险因素，颗粒物污染仅次于吸烟，二手烟近年来风险因素排名显著上升，职业风险的影响有所降低，不同性别的风险因素排名也有一定差异，要注意针对不同性别对吸烟、颗粒物污染、二手烟等风险因素的防控。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective To analyze the incidence and mortality burden and risk factors of Tracheal, Bronchus, and Lung (TBL) among the elderly population in China from 1990 to 2023, and to provide certain references for the formulation of public health policies. Methods Referring to the standard population composition of the seventh national census in China, the age-standardized morbidity and mortality rates of the TBL group among the elderly aged 60 and above were estimated, and the temporal trend was analyzed using Joinpoint regression. The proportions of morbidity and mortality were analyzed by gender and age groups. Decomposition analysis was used to explore the impact of aging, population growth and epidemiological changes on the disease burden. Risk factors were analyzed in combination with disability-adjusted Life Years (DALYs).Results Compared with 1990, the overall ASIR of the elderly population and women in China has increased, with an average annual increase of 0.42% and 0.3% respectively. The ASMR of Chinese men shows a downward trend, with an average annual decrease of 0.23% (P<0.05). The incidence and mortality of both men and women mainly occur between the ages of 70 and 74. Population growth is the main influencing factor for the increase in the number of cases and deaths of TBL among the elderly in China. The risk factors that have the greatest impact on the disease burden in 2023 are, in order: smoking, particulate matter pollution, second-hand smoke, occupational risks, high fasting blood sugar, insufficient fruit intake and residential radon. Conclusion From 1990 to 2023, the disease burden of TBL among the elderly population in China remains severe. Smoking is the most significant risk factor, followed by particulate matter pollution. The ranking of second-hand smoke as a risk factor has risen significantly in recent years, while the impact of occupational risks has decreased. There are also certain differences in the ranking of risk factors between different genders. Attention should be paid to the prevention and control of risk factors such as smoking, particulate matter pollution and second-hand smoke for different genders. |
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