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| 2022年甘肃省武威市胃癌流行特征及2011—2022年变化趋势分析和预测 |
| Epidemiological Characteristics of Gastric Cancer in Wuwei City, Gansu Province in 2022 and Analysis and Prediction of Trends from 2011 to 2022 |
| 投稿时间：2025-12-02 修订日期：2026-01-27 |
| DOI： |
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| 中文关键词: 关键词:胃癌 流行特征 变化趋势 预测 武威 |
| 英文关键词:Key words: Gastric cancer Epidemiological characteristics Changing trends Prediction Wuwei |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘要：[目的] 分析2022年甘肃省武威市肿瘤登记地区胃癌流行特征及2011—2022年胃癌流行趋势及未来10年发病和死亡预测，为武威市胃癌的防治措施提供依据。[方法] 按全国肿瘤登记中心审核规范及评价准则，评估武威市三县一区各登记点上报的胃癌数据质量。分地区、性别、年龄别计算胃癌发病( 死亡) 率、中标发病( 死亡) 率、世标发病( 死亡) 率、0 ~74 岁累积率及构成。采用Joinpoint回归模型和灰色模型GM(1,1)模型对恶性肿瘤进行时间变化趋势分析及预测。[结果] 2022年甘肃省武威市肿瘤登记地区胃癌粗发病率、中标率、世标率分别为56.46/10万、31.55/10万、34.94/10万；粗死亡率、中标率、世标率分别为40.29/10万、21.97/10万、25.20/10万，其中男性发病率和死亡率均高于女性。Joinpoint回归结果显示2011-2022年武威市胃癌标化发病率呈下降趋势；标化死亡率变化趋势不显著。预测结果显示武威市胃癌标化发病率和死亡率均下降。[结论] 2022年武威市发病率和死亡率存在性别和地区差异，2011—2022年间发病率呈现下降趋势，并且未来10年将呈现持续下降趋势。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract [Purpose] To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of gastric cancer in the cancer registration areas of Wuwei City, Gansu Province in 2022, as well as the trends and predictions of incidence and mortality from 2011 to 2022, so as to provide a basis for the prevention and treatment measures of gastric cancer in Wuwei City, Gansu Province.[Methods] Gastric cancer data reported by cancer registration sites in three counties and one district of Wuwei City were evaluated in accordance with the review methods and evaluation criteria formulated by the National Central Cancer Registry. Incidence (mortality) rate, age - standardized incidence (mortality) rate by Chinese standard population, age - standardized incidence (mortality) rate by world standard population, cumulative rate in 0-74 years old and composition ratio were calculated by region, gender and age group. Joinpoint regression model and first - order univariate grey model GM (1,1) were used to analyze and predict the temporal trends of malignant tumors.[Results] In 2022, the crude incidence rate, age - standardized incidence rate by Chinese standard population and age - standardized incidence rate by world standard population of gastric cancer in the cancer registration areas of Wuwei City, Gansu Province were 56.46 per 100,000, 31.55 per 100,000 and 34.94 per 100,000, respectively. The crude mortality rate, age - standardized mortality rate by Chinese standard population and age - standardized mortality rate by world standard population were 40.29 per 100,000, 21.97 per 100,000 and 25.20 per 100,000, respectively. Among them, the incidence and mortality rates of males were higher than those of females. The results of Joinpoint regression showed that the age - standardized incidence rate of gastric cancer in Wuwei City showed a downward trend from 2011 to 2022, while the change trend of age - standardized mortality rate was not significant. The prediction results indicated that both the age - standardized incidence rate and mortality rate of gastric cancer in Wuwei City would decrease.[Conclusion] In 2022, there were gender and regional differences in the incidence and mortality rates of gastric cancer in Wuwei City. The incidence rate showed a downward trend from 2011 to 2022 and will continue to decrease in the next 10 years. |
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