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| 2022年甘肃省武威市食管癌流行特征及2023—2032年发病与死亡预测 |
| The Epidemiological Characteristics of Esophageal Cancer in Wuwei City, Gansu Province in 2022, and Predictions of Incidence and Mortality from 2023 to 2032 |
| 投稿时间：2025-11-17 修订日期：2026-01-07 |
| DOI： |
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| 中文关键词: 食管癌 发病率 死亡率 趋势 预测 |
| 英文关键词:esophageal cancer incidence mortality trends prediction |
| 基金项目:武威市青年科技人才专项 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘要：[目的] 分析2022年甘肃省武威市食管癌流行特征及2010—2022年变化趋
势，并预测2023-2032年食管癌的发病率和死亡率。[方法] 本研究数据选取2010—2022年甘肃省武威市肿瘤登记处提供的食管癌的发病、死亡以及当地的人口数据资料。按照性别、年龄和地区分层，分别计算武威市食管癌的粗发病（死亡）率、年龄别发病（死亡）率、不同地区发病（死亡）率、中标发病（死亡）率和世标发病（死亡）率。运用Joinpoint 5.1.0软件计算平均年度变化百分比（Average annual percentage change，AAPC），分析食管癌2010—2022年发病和死亡变化趋势。通过R 4.5.1软件构建灰色GM(1,1)预测模型，预测2023-2032年食管癌发病率和死亡率。[结果] 2022年甘肃省武威市食管癌粗发病率为19.05/10万，中标率为10.32/10万，世标率为11.69/10万；食管癌粗死亡率为15.72/10万，中标率为8.37/10万，世标率为9.81/10万。男性中标发病率和死亡率分别是女性的2.60和3.02倍，年龄别发病率和死亡率均在50岁以上呈上升趋势，在75-79岁之间达到高峰。2010-2022年武威市食管癌中标发病率和死亡率总体呈下降趋势（AAPC分别为-10.54%和-11.97%，P均＜0.05）。灰色GM(1,1)预测模型预测结果显示，预计到2032年武威市食管癌的中标发病率和死亡率分别为4.29/10万和2.76/10万。[结论] 武威市食管癌发病（死亡）率仍然高于全球和全国水平，武威市食管癌疾病负担依然很重。未来应该重点关注食管癌高危人群，持续推进做好食管癌防控工作。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract: [Purpose] This study analyzes the epidemiological characteristics of esophageal cancer in Wuwei City, Gansu Province in 2022 and examines trends from 2010 to 2022. Additionally, it projects the incidence and mortality rates of esophageal cancer in the region from 2023 to 2032. [Methods] We obtained data on esophageal cancer incidence and mortality from the Wuwei City Cancer Registry in Gansu Province for the years 2010–2022, along with corresponding local population statistics. We calculated crude, age-specific, regional, age-standardized, and world-standardized incidence and mortality rates. These rates were further stratified by gender, age, and region to provide a comprehensive epidemiological assessment. Using Joinpoint 5.1.0 software, we calculated the average annual percentage change (AAPC) and analyzed trends in the incidence and mortality of esophageal cancer in Wuwei City from 2010 to 2022. Additionally, we constructed a grey GM(1,1) prediction model in R version 4.5.1 to forecast the incidence and mortality rates of esophageal cancer in Wuwei City for 2023–2032. [Results] In 2022, the crude incidence rate of esophageal cancer in Wuwei City was 19.05 per 100,000 with age-standardized and world-standardized incidence rates of 10.32 and 11.69 per 100,000 respectively. The crude mortality rate was 15.72 per 100,000 while the age-standardized and world-standardized mortality rates were 8.37 and 9.81 per 100,000 respectively. The age-standardized incidence and mortality rates for males were 2.60 and 3.02 times higher than those for females, respectively. Both the age-specific incidence and mortality rates increased with age, reaching their highest point in the 75-79 age group. From 2010 to 2022, both the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of esophageal cancer in Wuwei City showed a declining trend, with average annual percentage changes (AAPC) of -10.54% and -11.97%, respectively (both P<0.05). The grey GM(1,1) prediction model projected that, by 2032, the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of esophageal cancer in Wuwei City would reach 4.29 and 2.76 per 100,000.[Conclusion] The incidence and mortality rates of esophageal cancer in Wuwei City remain higher than both global and national averages, indicating that esophageal cancer continues to represent a significant public health burden in the region. Future efforts should focus on high-risk populations and further advance prevention and control measures for esophageal cancer. |
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