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| 2009—2021年江苏省肿瘤登记地区食管癌发病趋势及年龄变化分析 |
| Analysis of Esophageal Cancer Incidence Trends and Age-Specific Patterns in Jiangsu Province Tumor Registry Areas, 2009-2021 |
| 投稿时间：2025-11-13 修订日期：2026-01-22 |
| DOI： |
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| 中文关键词: 食管癌 发病率 发病年龄 江苏 |
| 英文关键词:Esophageal cancer Incidence Diagnosis age Jiangsu |
| 基金项目:四大慢病重大专项（2024ZD0524000） |
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| 摘要点击次数: 62 |
| 全文下载次数: 0 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 摘要： [目的] 分析2009—2021年江苏省肿瘤登记地区人群食管癌发病趋势及年龄变化情况。[方法] 基于2009—2021年江苏省16个符合质量控制标准、数据连续的肿瘤登记处资料，提取食管癌发病数据进行分析。分性别和城乡计算不同时期、年龄组和出生队列的发病率，并采用Joinpoint软件对发病率趋势进行分析，计算平均年度变化百分比。分性别和城乡计算2009—2021年的平均发病年龄和不同年龄组的发病构成，平均发病年龄的趋势变化采用线性回归模型分析，60岁以上年龄组人群发病构成比趋势变化采用对数线性模型分析。人口标准化参照Segi世界标准人口结构（世标率）。[结果] 2009—2021年江苏肿瘤登记地区食管癌标化发病率无论男女或城乡，均呈显著下降趋势，其中全省女性下降幅度（AAPC为-7.79%，95%CI：-8.44% ~ -7.13%）高于全省男性（AAPC为-5.80%，95%CI：-6.19% ~ -5.40%），城市（AAPC为-7.72%，95%CI：-8.43%~-7.02%）下降幅度高于农村（AAPC为-5.79%，95%CI：-6.78%~-4.79%）。不同年龄段发病趋势结果显示，2009—2021年全省男性30岁及以上各年龄组食管癌发病率呈显著下降趋势，AAPC在-2.34% ~ -12.83%之间，0~29岁发病率无明显变化。全省女性40~79岁各年龄组发病率呈显著下降趋势，AAPC在-5.4%~-17.83%，0~39岁和80岁以上各年龄组发病率无明显变化。2009—2021年江苏省人群食管癌平均发病年龄每年上升约0.42岁（95%CI：0.40~0.43），调整人口结构后，平均每年上升0.34岁（95%CI：0.31 ~ 0.36）。2009—2021年60岁以上人群的食管癌标化发病构成每年增加1.43%（95%CI：1.32% ~ 1.55%）。与2009年相比，2021年江苏省食管癌的标化年龄别发病构成总体呈右移趋势。[结论] 2009—2021年江苏省肿瘤登记地区食管癌发病率呈现下降趋势，60岁以上老年人群标化发病比重增加，发病年龄呈现相对后移趋势。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract: [Objective] We aimed to analyze the temporal trends and age-specific incidence patterns of esophageal cancer in Jiangsu cancer registration areas, 2009-2021. [Methods] Esophageal cancer incidence data from 16 quality-controlled, continuous cancer registries in Jiangsu Province (2009-2021) were analyzed. The incidence rates were calculated by sex and urban/rural residence across different periods, age groups, and birth cohorts. Joinpoint regression analysis was conducted to examine incidence trends, with calculation of the average annual percent change. Mean diagnosis age and age-stratified case distribution (2009-2021) were analyzed by sex and residence. Trend changes in mean age at diagnosis were analyzed using linear regression models, while trend changes in incidence proportion among populations aged over 60 years were analyzed using log-linear regression models. Age-standardized rates were calculated using the Segi's world standard population as reference. [Results] From 2009 to 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate of esophageal cancer in Jiangsu cancer registration areas showed a significant downward trend across both sexes and urban/rural areas. The decline was more pronounced in women (AAPC -7.79%, 95% CI: -8.44% to -7.13%) compared to men (AAPC -5.80%, 95% CI: -6.19% to -5.40%) at the provincial level. Urban areas demonstrated greater reductions (AAPC -7.72%, 95% CI: -8.43% to -7.02% for both sexes combined) than rural areas (AAPC -5.79%, 95% CI: -6.78% to -4.79%).The results of the incidence trends across different age groups show that from 2009 to 2021, the esophageal cancer incidence rates among males aged 30 and above in the province exhibited a significant downward trend, with AAPC ranging from -2.34% to -12.83%. However, no significant changes were observed in the incidence rates among those aged 0-29 years. The incidence rates among females aged 40–79 across all age groups in the province showed a significant downward trend, with AAPC ranging from -5.4% to -17.83%. No significant changes were observed in the incidence rates among those aged 0–39 and 80 years and above. The mean age at diagnosis for esophageal cancer in Jiangsu Province increased by approximately 0.42 years annually (95% CI: 0.40-0.43) from 2009 to 2021. After adjusting for population structure, the annual increase was 0.34 years (95% CI: 0.31-0.36). The age-standardized proportional incidence of esophageal cancer among individuals aged over 60 years increased by 1.43% annually (95% CI: 1.32%-1.55%) from 2009 to 2021. Compared to 2009, the age-standardized, age-specific incidence distribution of esophageal cancer in Jiangsu Province showed an overall rightward shift in 2021. [Conclusions] From 2009 to 2021, esophageal cancer incidence rates in Jiangsu's cancer registration areas demonstrated a declining trend, accompanied by an increased proportion of age-standardized cases among the elderly population aged 60 years and above and a relatively upward shift in the age at diagnosis. |
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