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| 2022年山东省济南市恶性肿瘤发病、死亡与生存状况分析 |
| Analysis of Incidence, Mortality, and Survival Status of Cancer in Jinan City, Shandong Province, 2022 |
| 投稿时间：2025-09-02 修订日期：2026-03-23 |
| DOI： |
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| 中文关键词: 恶性肿瘤 发病率 死亡率，观察生存率，相对生存率 |
| 英文关键词:cancer incidence mortality observed survival rate(RSR) relative survival rate (RSR) |
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| 摘要点击次数: 43 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| [目的]分析 2022 年山东省济南市居民恶性肿瘤发病、死亡流行特征及 2017年确诊患者的 5 年生存率情况。[方法]基于山东省肿瘤登记报告系统，收集 2022 年济南市恶性肿瘤发病和死亡数据，采用 SAS 9.4 软件进行统计分析，主要计算指标包括粗发病（死亡）率、中国人口标化发病（死亡）率（中标率）、世界人口标化发病（死亡）率（世标率）及 0~74 岁累积发病（死亡）率等。纳入2017 年 1 月 1 日 —2017 年 12 月 31 日期间济南市确诊的恶性肿瘤患者进行生存分析，所有病例均随访至 2022 年 12 月 31 日，随访时长均为 5 年。采用队列生存法（Cohort Survival method）计算观察生存率（observed survival rate, OSR）和相对生存率（relative survival rate, RSR），并按性别、癌种进行分层分析。[结果]2022年济南市恶性肿瘤粗发病率为365.56/10万、中标率为216.02/10万、世标率为227.63/10万，女性中标发病率（219.66/10万）略高于男性（215.27/10万），城区中标（228.69/10万）高于农村地区（192.30/10万）。2022年济南市恶性肿瘤粗死亡率为188.66/10万，中标率为88.33/10万，世标率为102.24/10万，男性中标死亡率（122.17/10万）明显高于女性（58.82/10万），农村（88.93/10万）略高于城区（87.98/10万）。截至2022年12月31日，共随访患者27 383例。5年观察生存率（OSR）和相对生存率（RSR）分别为46.40%和51.83%，女性5年RSR（59.25％）高于男性（45.03％），差异有统计学意义（χ2=3.93，p＜0.05）。甲状腺癌生存率最高，5年OSR、RSR分别为87.89%和97.35%，肺癌最低，分别为34.45%和37.87%；男性结直肠癌5年OSR、RSR最高（57.40%和67.31%），肝癌最低（18.93%和21.97%）；女性甲状腺癌5年OSR、RSR最高（89.56%和98.23%），胃癌最低（37.36%和40.65%）。[结论]济南市恶性肿瘤发病负担较重，女性发病率高于男性的现象需重点关注；甲状腺癌生存率显著优于其他癌种，但胃癌、肝癌生存率与国内外先进水平仍有差距，需加强早期筛查与综合防治。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| [Purpose] To analyze the incidence, mortality and and 5-year survival rate of cancer in Jinan City, 2022. [Methods] Data on the incidence and mortality of cancer in Jinan in 2022 were collected by Shandong Provincial Tumor Registration and Reporting System, and statistical analysis was performed using SAS 9.4 software. Stratified by urban-rural area and age group, the main indicators calculated included: crude incidence/mortality rate, age-standardized incidence/mortality rates (ASIR/ASMR, ASIRW/ASMRW) and cumulative incidence/mortality rates(0~74years old). ASIRC/ASMRC were calculated by the population composition from the 2000 National Census of China, while the ASIRW/ASMRW were calculated by the 2000 world standard population composition. Survival rates were analyzed using the cohort survival method to calculate observed survival rate (OSR) and relative survival rate (RSR), and stratified analysis was conducted by gender and cancer type. [Results] In 2022, the crude incidence rate, age-standardized incidence rate by Chinese standard population (ASIRC), and age-standardized incidence rate by world standard population (ASIRW) of malignant tumors in Jinan City were 365.56/105, 216.02/105, and 227.63/105, respectively. The ASIRC of females (219.66/105) was slightly higher than that of males (215.27/105), and the ASIRC in urban areas (228.69/105) was higher than that in rural areas (192.30/105). In terms of mortality, the crude mortality rate of malignant tumors in Jinan City in 2022 was 188.66/105 with age-standardized mortality rate by Chinese standard population (ASIMC) and age-standardized mortality rate by world standard population (ASIMW) of 88.33/105 and 102.24/105, respectively. The ASIMC of males (122.17/105) was significantly higher than that of females (58.82/105), and the ASIMC in rural areas (88.93/105) was slightly higher than that in urban areas (87.98/105). As of December 31, 2022, a total of 27,383 patients were followed up. The 5-year observed survival rate (OSR) and relative survival rate (RSR) were 46.40% and 51.83%, respectively. The 5-year RSR of females (59.25%) was higher than that of males (45.03%), and the difference was statistically significant (Chi-square=3.93, p<0.05). Among malignant tumors, thyroid cancer had the highest survival rates, with 5-year OSR and RSR of 87.89% and 97.35%, respectively, while lung cancer had the lowest (OSR: 34.45%, RSR: 37.87%). In males, colorectal cancer had the highest 5-year OSR and RSR (57.40% and 67.31%), and liver cancer the lowest (OSR: 18.93%, RSR: 21.97%). In females, thyroid cancer had the highest 5-year OSR and RSR (89.56% and 98.23%), and gastric cancer the lowest (OSR: 37.36%, RSR: 40.765%). [Conclusion]The incidence of cancer in Jinan is relatively high. The 5-year survival rates for gastric cancer and liver cancer still have room for improvement compared with some domestic regions and developed countries. |
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