| Abstract: Objective To analyze the trends in disability-adjusted life years due to liver cancer among the Chinese population from 1992 to 2021, compare them with international trends, make predictions, and propose relevant policy recommendations. Methods Liver cancer DALY data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database. An age-period-cohort model was used to analyze the age, period, and cohort effects on disease burden. An ARIMA model was applied to predict the number of DALYs and age-standardized DALY rates for liver cancer in China from 2024 to 2030. Results From 1992 to 2021, the number of liver cancer DALYs in China increased from 3.2366 million person-years to 3.7925 million person-years, showing an upward trend. However, the age-standardized DALY rate decreased from 311.43 per 100,000 to 182.72 per 100,000 (AAPC = -2.01%), a faster decline than the global average (AAPC = -0.74%).Regarding age effects, the liver cancer DALY rate exhibited nonlinear changes with age, peaking in the 45–49 age group (deviation value 0.55) and then declining, reaching its lowest point in the 80–84 age group (-0.65).Period effects indicated a continuous decline in the period rate ratio from 1.46 to 0.48 between 1992 and 2021. Cohort effects showed that later birth cohorts had lower cohort rate ratios, decreasing from 23.85 for the 1897 birth cohort to 0.23 for the 2002 birth cohort.Compared with selected developed countries, developing countries, and low SDI countries, China had the highest number of liver cancer DALYs. The age-standardized DALY rate in China remained higher than that in countries such as Japan and South Korea.Predictions indicated that from 2024 to 2030, the number of liver cancer DALYs in China will rise from 4.0643 million to 4.1455 million person-years, while the age-standardized DALY rate will decline from 182.75 to 153.53 per 100,000. Males will have significantly higher rates than females. Conclusion From 1992 to 2021, the age-standardized DALY rate for liver cancer in China showed a declining trend, but the absolute number of DALYs remains high, with notable age and gender disparities. Predictions suggest that while the age-standardized DALY rate will continue to decline, the number of DALYs will remain elevated, indicating a persistent challenge in liver cancer control. It is recommended to strengthen targeted screening for high-risk populations, improve early diagnosis and treatment systems, promote multi-dimensional risk factor interventions, and optimize prevention strategies by learning from international experiences to achieve sustained reduction in disease burden. |
