| Abstract: Objective Lung cancer is the malignant tumor with the highest incidence and mortality rates and the heaviest disease burden in China, and remains the biggest public health problem in China. The aim of this study was to analyze the temporal trends of lung cancer in Gansu Province from 2011 to 2020, and the effects of age, period and cohort on lung cancer incidence and mortality. Methods Based on the latest data of tumor registration and follow-up monitoring, the lung cancer incidence, mortality and population data reported by various tumor registration sites in Gansu Province, which were qualified by quality audit, were collated for summary analysis. The Joinpoint regression model was used to calculate the annual percentage change (APC) of the standardized incidence and mortality rates, and to analyze the temporal trend of lung cancer incidence and mortality in Gansu Province; the age-period-cohort model was used to analyze the age effect, period effect, and cohort effect affecting the risk of lung cancer incidence and mortality in Gansu Province. Results Joinpoint regression results showed that the standardized incidence rate of lung cancer in Gansu Province from 2011 to 2020 increased significantly by 5.8% (95% CI: 3.4%, 8.2%), the standardized incidence rate of lung cancer in males increased significantly by 6.0% (95% CI: 3.5%, 8.5%), the standardized incidence rate of lung cancer in females increased significantly by 5.5% (95% CI: 3.0%, 7.9%); from 2011 to 2020, Gansu Province saw a significant increase of 5.0% (95% CI: 1.3%, 9.0%) in the standardized lung cancer mortality rate, a significant increase of 6.5% (95% CI: 2.7%, 10.4%) in the standardized lung cancer mortality rate for men, and a non-significant trend of change in the standardized lung cancer mortality rate for women (95% CI: -2.4%, 6.8%). The age effect showed that overall the effect of age on lung cancer incidence and mortality did not change significantly with age, the mortality rate of females in the age range of 25-69 years tended to increase with age, and the mortality rate in the age of 70s and above tended to stabilize; the trend change of incidence and mortality rate was not significant in the period effect and the cohort effect. Conclusion The incidence and mortality of lung cancer in Gansu Province from 2011 to 2020 have shown an upward trend, and the situation of cancer prevention and control is grim.There should be greater emphasis on public education on lung cancer prevention and control strategies, expanding the coverage of early detection and treatment screening, standardizing clinical diagnosis and treatment, and reducing the mortality rate of lung cancer, with the aim of curbing the rising trend of lung cancer burden. |
