| Abstract: Purpose To analyze the trend of incidence and mortality of esophageal cancer in Jining from 2014 to 2023 and predict the development trend from 2024 to 2030. Methods Data on incidence and mortality of esophageal cancer in Jining from 2014 to 2023 were derived from the Shandong cancer registration system. The crude incidence (mortality) rate, age-specific incidence (mortality) rate, and age- standardized incidence/mortality rates (ASIR/ASMR) of esophageal cancer in different years were calculated according to gender, age and urban and rural stratification. The standardized rate was based on the Chinese standard population in 2000. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) of incidence and mortality were calculated by Joinpoint software. The GM (1,1) grey model was used to predict the trend of esophageal cancer incidence and mortality from 2024 to 2030. Results From 2014 to 2023, The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of esophageal cancer in Jining showed a decreasing trend. The ASIR decreased from 25.31/100,000 to 12.75/100,000(AAPC= -8.24%, P < 0.001), and the ASMR decreased from 12.84/100,000 in 2014 to 9.10/ 100,000 in 2023 (AAPC= -5.91%, P < 0.001). The ASIR and ASMR of male, female, urban and rural population also showed a downward trend. The incidence and mortality rates of men were always higher than those of women, and incidence and mortality rates of rural areas were always higher than those of urban areas. The incidence of esophageal cancer in all age groups aged 40 and above showed a decreasing trend, and the mortality in all age groups aged 40-79 showed a decreasing trend. From the perspective of age distribution, the incidence and mortality rates of esophageal cancer are significantly lower among individuals under the age of 40, whereas the majority of cases are concentrated in the elderly population aged 60 and above. The GM (1,1) gray model predicted that the ASIR and ASMR of esophageal cancer would further decrease from 2024 to 2030, and it is expected that the ASIR and ASMR of esophageal cancer would decrease to 6.00/100,000 and 4.90/100,000 respectively in 2030. Conclusion From 2014 to 2023, the incidence and mortality of esophageal cancer in Jining showed a continuous downward trend, and it is expected to further decrease by 2030. However, the current burden of disease is still higher than the national level for 2022, and the burden is particularly high among men, the elderly and people in rural areas. It is recommended to strengthen intervention and screening measures for the above high-risk groups to continuously reduce the burden of esophageal cancer. |
