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2010—2019年林州市食管癌流行特征与减寿年数变化趋势分析

Trends of Esophageal Cancer Incidence， Mortality and Disease Burden Among Residents in Linzhou City from 2010 to 2019

投稿时间：2024-12-28 修订日期：2025-02-14

DOI：

中文关键词: 食管癌发病死亡趋势分析，疾病负担，林州市

英文关键词:esophagus cancer incidence mortality trend analysis disease burden Linzhou

基金项目:

作者	单位	邮编
于晓东^*	林州市肿瘤医院	456550

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中文摘要:

[目的] 分析2010-2019年林州食管癌发病及死亡趋势变化及减寿年数变化情况，为食管癌防控策略的制定提供参考依据。[方法] 收集整理2010-2019年林州市肿瘤登记处食管癌新发病病例和死亡病例，依据《中国肿瘤登记工作指导手册》及国际癌症研究署(IARC)和国际癌症登记协会(IACR)的数据质量评价标准，评估数据的完整性、有效性和可靠性。分性别、年龄计算其发病(死亡)率及中标率、世标率，以及食管癌潜在减寿年数（PYLL）、平均潜在减寿年数（APYLL）、潜在减寿率（PYLLR）及平均年度变化百分比（AAPC值）等指标。标化率采用2000年全国普查标准人口年龄构成和Segi世界标准人口构成计算。Joinpoint软件进行趋势分析。[结果] 2010-2019年林州市食管癌总体及女性粗发病率均保持平稳态势，男性粗发病率呈明显下降趋势（AAPC=-1.36%），经调整人口年龄结构后，总体、男性及女性中标发病率均呈显著的下降趋势。2010-2019年林州市食管癌总体粗死亡率及男性粗死亡率均保持平稳态势，女性粗死亡率呈明显下降趋势（AAPC=-2.07%），经调整人口年龄结构后，食管癌总体、男性及女性中标死亡率和世标死亡率均呈显著下降趋势，且趋势变化均具有统计学意义。年龄组发病趋势结果显示，林州市食管癌各年龄段均呈显著下降趋势，0~49岁、50~59岁、60~69岁和70+岁年龄段发病率下降幅度分别为-9.92%、-8.27%、-1.41%和-3.86%，P值均小于0.05。年龄组死亡趋势与发病基本一致，各年龄段均呈显著下降趋势，AAPC值分别为-9.50%、-12.36%、-2.61%和-2.98%，P值均小于0.05。2010-2019年林州市是食管癌所致合计PYLL为60 880人年。男性PYLL（37 975人年）高于女性（22 905人年），男性PYLLR率高于女性，差异有统计学意义。总体及男性与女性的PYLL、APYLL、PYLLR均呈逐年下降的趋势，且变化趋势具有统计学意义。 [结论] 2010-2019年林州市食管癌发病、死亡及早死疾病负担呈低幅度下降，长期筛查效果显著，但男性和老年群体作为重点防治人群不容忽视。未来有待持续完善防控策略，提高癌症防控的整体水平。

英文摘要:

Objective: To analyze the trends in incidence and mortality of esophageal cancer in Linzhou City from 2010 to 2019, and the years of potential life lost (PYLL), so as to provide reference for the formulation of prevention and control strategies for esophageal cancer. Methods: The cases and deaths from esophageal cancer of Linzhou City from 2010 to 2019 were collected from the Linzhou Cancer Registry. Data completeness, validity, and reliability were assessed according to the Cancer Registration Work Guidelines and quality standards set by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) and the International Association of Cancer Registries (IACR). Incidence and mortality, age-standardized rates, potential years of life lost (PYLL), average potential years of life lost (APYLL), potential years of life lost rate (PYLLR), and average annual percent change (AAPC) were calculated by gender and age group. Age-standardized rates were computed using the 2000 national census population and the Segi World Standard Population. Trend analysis was performed using Joinpoint software. Results: From 2010 to 2019, the overall and female crude incidence rates of esophageal cancer in Linzhou City remained stable, while the male crude incidence rate showed a significant declining trend (AAPC = -1.36%). After adjusting for age structure, the age-standardized incidence rates of the overall, the male and female all showed significant declines with statistical significance. The overall and the male crude mortality rates remained stable, whereas the female crude mortality rate demonstrated a significant decrease (AAPC = -2.07%). After age adjustment, the age-standardized mortality rates for esophageal cancer in the overall, the male, and the female populations all showed significant declines with statistical significance. Age-specific incidence trends revealed significant decreases across all age groups, with reductions of -9.92%, -8.27%, -1.41%, and -3.86% for the 0-49, 50-59, 60-69, and 70+ age groups, respectively, all the P<0.05. Mortality trends by age group mirrored incidence trends, with significant decreases observed and AAPC values of -9.50%, -12.36%, -2.61%, and -2.98%, all with the P<0.05. From 2010 to 2019, the total PYLL due to esophageal cancer in Linzhou City was 60,880 person-years. The PYLL for males (37,975 person-years) was higher than for females (22,905 person-years), with a statistically significant difference in PYLLR rates between genders. Both overall and gender-specific PYLL, APYLL, and PYLLR showed a statistically significant declining trend annually. Conclusion: From 2010 to 2019, there was a slight decline in the incidence, mortality, and disease burden due to early death from esophageal cancer in Linzhou City, reflecting significant screening effectiveness. However, males and the elderly remain key populations for focused prevention and control efforts.

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