| [Purpose] To analyse the changes in the incidence trend of thyroid cancer from 1990 to 2021, predict the future incidence, and provide a scientific basis for the formulation of targeted thyroid cancer prevention and treatment strategies. [Methods] We collected data related to the incidence of thyroid cancer among Chinese residents from 1990 to 2021 in the Global Burden of Disease 2021 (GBD 2021) study, analysed the trend of thyroid cancer incidence using the Joinpoint regression model, and constructed a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model to predict the future incidence of thyroid cancer in the years of 2022-2030, based on the incidence data in the years of 1990 to 2021. incidence in 2022-2030. [Results] From 1990 to 2021, the standardised incidence rate of thyroid cancer in China showed a fluctuating upward trend, and the ASIR of thyroid cancer in China in 2021 was 2.47 per 100,000, slightly lower than the global average (2.91 per 100,000) in the same year.In 2021, there were significant differences in new cases and incidence rate of thyroid cancer between men and women, with the incidence rate of women being higher than that of men. Among them, the number of new cases in women was 27,915, the crude incidence rate was 4.02/100,000, and the standardised incidence rate was 2.87/100,000; in men, the number of new cases was 20,189, the crude incidence rate was 2.77/100,000, and the standardised incidence rate was 2.11/100,000.Between 1990 and 2021, the increase in the number of new cases, the crude incidence rate, and the standardised incidence rate of men in China was much larger than that of women. The standardised incidence rates of thyroid cancer in both males and females showed an increasing trend, while the average annual percentage change (AAPC) in females was lower than that in males. There were significant gender differences in the age-specific incidence rates of thyroid cancer. in 2021, the incidence rate of women was higher than that of men in the Chinese population <75 years of age, whereas the incidence rate of men was higher than that of women in the population ≥75 years of age. in 1990-2021, the incidence rates of the Chinese male population aged 45-59 years and ≥75 years of age increased significantly; and the incidence rate of the Chinese female population aged 50-74 years of age increased significantly. Projections showed that the overall, male, and female standardised incidence rates in 2030 increased to 2.90/100,000, 2.44/100,000, and 3.26/100,000, respectively. [Conclusions]
The incidence rate of thyroid cancer in China is on the rise, with the incidence rate of women being higher than that of men, but the incidence rate of men has increased more than that of women, and the gap between the incidence rates is narrowing, and the peak age of incidence of men is mostly in the senior age group. The situation of thyroid cancer prevention and control is still serious, and the aging of the population is intensifying, so it is necessary to pay attention to the high incidence of thyroid cancer in women, and at the same time, strengthen the health awareness of the male population, especially the elderly men, and increase the screening efforts. |
