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| 上海市金山区1980-2023年结直肠癌死亡水平及过早死亡概率趋势分析 |
| Analysis of the trend of mortality and probability of premature mortality caused by colorectal cancer in Jinshan district, Shanghai, 1980-2023 |
| 投稿时间：2024-10-04 修订日期：2024-12-05 |
| DOI： |
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| 中文关键词: 结直肠癌 死亡率 过早死亡概率 趋势 金山区 |
| 英文关键词:Colorectal cancer Mortality Probability of premature mortality Trend Jinshan district |
| 基金项目:上海市金山区卫生健康专项科研课题面上项目（JSKJ-KTMS-2022-03） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘要：[目的] 分析1980-2023年上海市金山区居民结直肠癌死亡率及过早死亡概率的变化趋势，为制订结直肠癌防治措施提供依据。[方法] 通过收集各级医疗机构和公安法医部门出具的金山区居民1980-2023年结直肠癌死亡报告，建立研究用死亡数据库，并计算不同时期不同性别居民结直肠癌粗死亡率，标化死亡率、年龄别死亡率、过早死亡概率及年度变化百分比等指标。[结果] 1980-2023年，金山区结直肠癌粗死亡率呈上升趋势（APC=2.57%，P＜0.001），标化死亡率呈下降趋势（APC=-0.85%，P＜0.001）。44年间，除了1990-1999年男性和女性结直肠癌标化死亡率呈下降趋势外（APC=-5.08%、-7.85%，P=0.007、0.011），其他不同时期男性和女性结直肠癌标化死亡率均无升降趋势。在各个时期，金山区结直肠癌年龄别死亡率均随年龄的增长而上升，并在1980-1989年的70-74岁年龄组、1990-1999年的75-79岁年龄组、2000-2009年和2010-2019年的80-84岁年龄组、2020-2023年的85岁及以上年龄组达到最高值（109.22/10万、77.56/10万、113.78/10万、172.82/10万和236.58/10万）。44年间，男性和女性结直肠癌过早死亡概率均呈下降趋势（APC=-1.34%和-2.40%，P<0.001），但自2000年起，男性和女性结直肠癌过早死亡概率均未呈现升降趋势。[结论] 结直肠癌是严重威胁上海市金山区居民生命健康的恶性肿瘤之一，自2019年结直肠癌已成为金山区居民第二位肿瘤死因，并且从2000年及之后金山区男性和女性居民结直肠癌标化死亡率和过早死亡概率未出现下降趋势。我们宜综合采取结直肠癌一级预防、二级预防和三级预防措施来降低结直肠癌的死亡率和过早死亡概率。
关键词：结直肠癌；死亡率；过早死亡概率；趋势；金山区 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract [Objective] This study aims to analyze the trends of mortality and probability of premature mortality caused by colorectal cancer in Jinshan district of Shanghai from 1980 to 2023 and provides evidence for the prevention and treatment of colorectal cancer. [Methods] This study collected the death reports of colorectal cancer issued by medical institutions at all levels and forensic departments from 1980 to 2023 in Jinshan district and established the research death database and calculated the crude death rate, standardized death rate, age-specific death rate, probability of premature mortality and annual percentage change of colorectal cancer. [Results] In Jinshan district the crude death rate of colorectal cancer increased from 1980 to 2023 (APC=2.57%, P<0.001) and the standardized death rate of colorectal cancer decreased at same period (APC=-0.851%, P<0.001). During the 44 years, the standardized death rate of colorectal cancer in male and female showed a decreasing trend from 1990 to 1999 (APC=-5.08%, -7.85%, P=0.007, 0.011) and the standardized death rate of colorectal cancer in male and female showed no increasing or decreasing trend in other periods. In each period, followed with the increase of age the age-specific death rate of colorectal cancer t increased in Jinshan distric and reached its highest value in the 70-74 age group in 1980-1989, 75-79 age group in 1990-1999, 80-84 age group in 2000-2009 and 2010-2019, 85 age group and above in 2020-2023 (109.22/100,000, 77.56/10) Million, 113.78/100,000, 172.82/100,000 and 236.58/100,000). During the 44 years, the probability of premature mortality of colorectal cancer decreased in male and female (APC=-1.34% and -2.40%, P<0.001), but the probability of premature mortality of colorectal cancer in male and female showed no no increasing or decreasing trend since 2000. [Conclusions] Colorectal cancer had been one of the most fatal cancer threatened the health of residents in Jinshan district. Since 2019, colorectal cancer has become the second cause of cancer death in Jinshan district and since 2000, the standardized mortality rate and the probability of premature mortality caused by colorectal cancer in male and female residents in Jinshan district have not shown a significant downward trend. We should take a combination of primary, secondary and tertiary prevention measures to reduce the mortality and the probability of premature mortality caused by colorectal cancer.
Key words: Colorectal cancer; Mortality; Probability of premature mortality; Trend; Jinshan district |
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