| Abstract: [Purpose] To analyze the trend of prostate cancer mortality in China from 2011 to 2020, and to predict the prostate cancer mortality up to 2030. [Methods] The data were collected from the National Mortality Surveillance System (NMSS) from 2011 to 2020, we described the burden of prostate cancer in China from 2011 to 2020 by the number of deaths, age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), years of life lost (YLL) and age-standardized YLL rate. Joinpoint regression model was used to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) to describe the trend of change. The Bayesian regression model was used to predict the mortality rate of prostate cancer from 2021 to 2030 and estimate the number of deaths of prostate cancer in the future. Decomposition analysis was carried out to explore the potential drivers of changes of mortality. [Results] The number of prostate cancer deaths in China in 2020 was 31,000, with an ASMR of 5.56/100,000. The ASMR for prostate cancer in urban and rural areas was 6.56/100,000 and 4.84/100,000 respectively. From 2011 to 2020, the ASMR and age-standardized years of life lost rate of prostate cancer in China showed an upward trend. The ASMR of prostate cancer is greater in the eastern region than in the central and western regions. In 2030, the ASMR of prostate cancer will increase to 5.74/100,000. Population aging, changes in age-specific mortality rates, and natural population growth accounted for 24.75%, 2.77%, and 7.45% of the changes in total deaths of prostate cancer, respectively. [Conclusion] The burden of prostate cancer is increasing in China. Targeted measures should be implemented in high-risk areas and high-risk groups to effectively reduce the disease burden caused by prostate cancer. |
